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Article Excerpt
"The future, as a concept of time, can be viewed as taking place anytime from this instant into infinity" (Hays & Johnson, 1984, p. 208). This statement from early counseling futurists is so fundamental, school counselors may often overlook the reality that each moment lived is a step into the future. Forecasting the future of school counseling for the next 20 years is too broad; thus, this article is dedicated to anticipating the changing diversity of K-12 populations served by school counselors. Speculation based on projected trends and extrapolated data on student enrollment is used to describe the professional knowledge, awareness, and skills counselors will need to touch the lives of the students of the future. The terms diversity and cultural diversity are used interchangeably in this article. For clarity, these words will convey "the lived experiences and the related perceptions of and reactions to those experiences that serve to differentiate collective populations from one another" (Marshall, 2002, p. 7). This definition aligns with the concept of social construction--each individual is the cumulative embodiment of all their experiences and interpretation of those experiences in relation to other individuals as cultural beings. Professional school counselors may be required to facilitate the social construction of students, families, and community cultures in the future, while heeding to social, political, economic, environmental, and psychological societal issues that move beyond cultural competence.
What kind of future do school counseling professionals want? Intentionality is necessary in considering the kind of future the school counseling profession desires and in making the decisions necessary to achieve such a future. Using intentionality in pursuing activities to achieve a desired future may increase the potential for predictable outcomes. Futurists have identified four guiding concepts in contemplating future scenarios of a social phenomenon: (a) probable future, the future that will likely be; (b) possible future, the future that may be; (c) plausible future, the future that could be; and (d) preferable future, the future that should be (Inbody, 1984). Inbody has elected to consider a probable future (the future that will likely be) to reflect on and conceptualize potential demands of school counseling professionals in working with diverse student populations.
* Projections of Population Trends Through 2025
Currently, U.S. public schools are filled with student populations that are "multiethnic, multicultural, and multilingual" (Holcomb-McCoy & Chen-Hayes, 2007, p. 75). According to the U.S. Census Bureau (2000) reports, in the 1990s, racial and ethnic minorities made up 80% of the nation's population growth. In the 2000s, there were roughly 87 million people of minority backgrounds living in the country, corresponding to a 43% increase from the 1990 population data (Roseberry-McKibbin, Brice, & O'Hanlon, 2005). An examination of the U.S. Census Bureau reports during the past 20 years indicates that the White, non-Hispanic population grew by 7.6% because the population of individuals from racial minority backgrounds grew by more than 90%. T. M. Smith, Young, Bae, Choy, and Alsalam (1997) estimated that by the year 2010, there will be a 50% or more increase in the number of Latino/a, Asian/Pacific Islander, American Indian, and Alaska Native students joining public school systems. During the same period, the monolingual English-speaking White population is expected to decrease by more than 10% (T. M. Smith et al., 1997). Public school enrollments are expected to reach an all time high of 50 million students by 2014 (Livingston & Wirt, 2005). These most recent data demonstrate the increasing need for school counselors to develop cultural competence and to be better prepared to support the school success of the expanding, culturally diverse student population.
Projections of schoolchildren ages 5 to 17 have been calculated through the year 2020 by the U.S. Census Bureau (2000). States projected to have the "smallest proportion" of population under age 20 are West Virginia and Florida, which are both at 21% (Campbell, 1996). However, Campbell projected two states will have the largest proportion of their population less than 20 years of age--Alaska (34%) and California (33%). In addition to the 1996 general population projections, the U.S. Census Bureau has predicted race/ethnicity populations in the United States through the year 2025. When the school-age children data are combined with the race/ethnicity data, a clearer forecast in student diversity emerges. An overarching picture of diverse faces in U.S. schools may be projected. By 2020 the racial and ethnic distribution for school-age persons between 5 and 17 years old is projected to be 30 million White; 9 million African American; 13 million Latino/a; 3 million Asian/Pacific Islander; and 4 million other, which includes American Indians, Alaska Natives, and those of multiple race/ethnicities (U.S. Census Bureau, 2000).
The previous information provides insight into the future students seeking help from school counselors in the next 20 years. More important to...
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