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CUBAN ECONOMY IN RECESSION WITH RISING OIL PRICES & FALLING EXPORT & TOURISM INCOME.

Article Excerpt
The Cuban economy grew by a feeble 1.1% in 2002, well below the projected 2.5% to 3.0%. But the government insisted on placing the disappointing macroeconomic statistics within the broader picture of the worse showing elsewhere in Latin America and sluggish growth worldwide. Economy officials said the impact on Cubans would have been worse had the country passed the year under a free-market system without state social protections.

Officials say Cuba's major economic problem is financing imports such as oil, but they expect the pressure to ease in the next few years as a result of increased exports, import substitution, greater production efficiencies, and the renegotiation of foreign debt.

Among the factors hurting the economy:

* Hurricane Michelle struck Cuba in November 2001, causing US$1.8 billion in losses.

* Two other hurricanes only 11 days apart swept through the prime tobacco areas in Pinar del Rio Province in November 2002 causing US$800 million in losses. Orlando Lugo, head of the Asociacion Nacional de Agricultores Pequenos (ANAP) said 11,000 of the province's 14,000 curing houses were damaged or destroyed.

* Tourism revenues dropped by 5%, a loss attributed to the aftereffects of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks in the US.

* Because of rising oil prices, Cuba spent US$1 billion on imported oil. Officials have not glossed over the bleak energy forecast that has resulted. President Fidel Castro...

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