...important ever after the violence of the summer of 2000 and beyond. But the obstacles to doing so have increased with the election of a Hamas-led government and the rise and fall of the Kadima party in Israel. The article then proceeds to outline two strategies that, used in tandem, can help overcome this dilemma: a gradualist strategy of inching toward the negotiating table and a visionary strategy of looking beyond the negotiations.

THE WARS OF 2006

In exploring the implications of the wars of 2006--the war between Israel and Hezbollah and the escalation in Gaza--I start with the conviction that there is no military solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It is an existential conflict, in which the very survival of the two peoples is at stake. Neither side can win militarily, except perhaps at a cost that is too terrible to contemplate: the destruction or subjugation of the other as a nation. Continuation of the military struggle could well lead to the mutual destruction of both societies--if not their physical demise, then their destruction as viable societies with the ability to provide for the welfare of their populations, with moral integrity and good standing in the world community.

My view that there is no military solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been strongly reinforced by the recent wars. Let me focus for a moment on Israel's war with Hezbollah, which has an obvious bearing on its conflict with the Palestinians. On both the Israeli and the Hezbollah sides, there have been attempts to put a spin on the outcome of the war to allow a claim of victory. A simple example of contrasting spins is provided by the estimates of the proportion of Hezbollah missiles that have been destroyed by Israeli raids--estimates ranging from 7 percent to 70 percent. But whatever spin the two sides may put on the outcome, my conclusion is that neither side won that war. Israel did not achieve any of its military objectives. As for Hezbollah, it scored some points, but at a rather heavy cost. It proved its capacity to stand up to Israel's military might for an extended period of time; it achieved popularity in the Arab world but also created suspicion and hostility; it gained leverage in the internal political struggle within Lebanon, although it has also created a backlash, particularly in view of the heavy cost to Lebanon's general population and infrastructure that Hezbollah's provocation of Israel has brought about. Even Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in effect, acknowledged that backlash when he announced that he would not have undertaken the cross-border raid had he anticipated the intensity of Israel's reaction.

What the war demonstrated was that each side has the capacity to inflict significant pain and damage on the other. This is obvious in the case of the Israeli strikes against Lebanon. The resulting loss of life, destruction of public buildings and collapse of infrastructure have had a devastating effect on a country still in the process of recovering from its long civil war. We should not underestimate, however, the damage that the war has done to the Israeli population. To be sure, the number of deaths, injuries, people displaced and homes destroyed was much smaller on the Israeli side than on the Lebanese side. But there were significant losses. And there was significant disruption in the lives of Israeli citizens. A large proportion of the population of northern Israel--some hundreds of thousands--had to leave their homes, along with their jobs and schools, and move to other parts of the country or live in air-raid shelters for several weeks. By the same token, the Qassam rockets fired from Gaza--while they have fortunately so far caused relatively few deaths and injuries and relatively little damage--have traumatized and profoundly disrupted the lives of the population of Sderot and other areas of Israel in the vicinity of the Gaza border.

Let me add, in this connection, that all sides--Israel, Hezbollah and Hamas--have committed war crimes, even though there are large differences in the level of destruction they have caused. They have done so by deliberately firing at population centers, by dropping bombs or launching missiles indiscriminately, or by giving insufficient weight to the inevitable civilian deaths resulting from attacks on military targets.

THE MYTH OF ISRAELI INVULNERABILITY

Perhaps the most important effect of the 2006 war, with distinct relevance for renewal of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, is that it broke the myth of Israeli invulnerability, a myth shared by many Israelis and Palestinians, as well as Arabs in general. "Invulnerability" is probably too strong a term. Israelis, fearfully, and Palestinians, hopefully, believe that indeed Israel is ultimately vulnerable. For Israeli (as well as diaspora) Jews, the sense of vulnerability goes back to the Jewish historical experience over the centuries, which is not easily erased by several decades of statehood. The sense of ultimate vulnerability is reinforced by Israel's isolated position in the midst of the Arab world. On the Palestinian side, the hope that Israel is ultimately vulnerable is reflected in the common analogy of Israel with the Crusaders, who are perceived as foreign intruders in the region that were eventually forced to depart. It is also reflected in the conclusion many Palestinians have drawn from Israel's unilateral withdrawal from Southern Lebanon and from Gaza: sufficient violence can eventually drive the Israelis out.

My reference to the myth of Israel's...

NOTE: All illustrations and photos have been removed from this article.



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