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The shine's off aluminum: producers and distributors of aluminum products say that persistent weakness in such key markets as automotive, truck-trailer and housing will likely hurt sales in 2008.

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While there's nothing but clear skies ahead for the aerospace sector (see related story on page 12), the forecast for other aluminum markets is considerably cloudier. Analysts and executives report serious concerns about aluminum's outlook for the coming year.

"I'm not very optimistic. I'm of the opinion that we are looking flat at best next year vs. 2007," says Jerrod Hoeft, director of national accounts for Indalex Aluminum Solutions, Lincolnshire, Ill. Hoeft delivered similar words of caution at the Metals Service Center Institute's Forecast 2008 conference in September.

Parks Dodd is scheduled to offer a comparable diagnosis at this month's MSCI Aluminum Products Division meeting in California. "It's a fairly pessimistic outlook," says Dodd, president of Aluminomics LLC, a research and advisory firm for the aluminum industry. "I'm not looking for 2008 to be much of a year."

The degree of pessimism expressed by industry executives is proportional to their exposure to the residential construction market, which continues its downward spiral under the weight of the subprime mortgage crisis. "As far as the housing market goes, I don't see the end of the bad news," says Dodd. "It might be the spring of 2009 before we see things turn around."

Hoeft, whose company specializes in aluminum extrusions, agrees that the end of the housing slide is difficult to pinpoint. "The residential mortgage crisis hit when we were already in a slowing demand market, which has pushed everybody way off as far as trying to predict when...

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