|
Article Excerpt
Introduction
Outdoor recreation and related tourism in Canada is inherently sensitive to climate conditions, and consequently, climate change could have potentially important and disparate implications for specific outdoor recreation industries. Recent studies have demonstrated that projected changes in the climate are relevant to the future economic success of Canada's skiing industry (Scott et al. 2003; Scott et al. 2007), natural seasonality in visitation to national parks (Jones and Scott 2006) and even the timing and quality of recognized tourism events (Scott et al. 2005; Jones et al. forthcoming). Yet, in comparison to other economic sectors of Canada's economy (e.g., agriculture, forestry), our understanding of the implications of climate change for outdoor recreation and tourism is much less advanced.
One of the largest recreation sectors in Canada is the golf industry. There are approximately 2,000 golf courses (Andrew 1998) and some 5 million amateur golfers in Canada (Royal Canadian Golf Association 2004). Canadians played an estimated 65 million rounds of golf in 2001 (Royal Canadian Golf Association 2002). As of 2003, the Canadian golf industry had operating revenues in excess of CDN$1.9 billion (Statistics Canada 2005).
An important determinant in the annual success of the Canadian golf industry is the climate. Variations in the climate from year to year can have positive and negative impacts on the industry. For example, above normal seasonal autumn temperatures allowed many Winnipeg-area golf courses to re-open for several weeks in November 2002 (Winnipeg Free Press 2002). However, a cool, wet spring in 2002 had a discernable negative impact on the number of rounds played and golf course revenues in many parts of Canada. Rounds played in Edmonton in May (2002) were 23 percent lower than average and 10 percent to 20 percent lower in parts of Ontario (Doey and Wong 2002). Cool and wet conditions during the spring and summer of 2004 in many parts of Canada also contributed to reductions in rounds played. In southern Ontario, rain occurred on 78 of the 142 days between 1 April and 21 August, contributing to reductions in rounds played by as much as 20 percent at some courses (Herbert 2004). Cool, wet conditions resulted in reductions in rounds played by as high as 40 percent at some golf courses in southern Manitoba (Canadian Press 2004; Winnipeg Free Press 2004). A hot summer and several prolonged heat waves (humidex values ~+35[degrees]C) in Ontario in 2005 contributed to reductions in rounds played during the warmest part of the day (Herbert 2005).
Climate is the long-term average weather at a given location, and is important to the golf industry because it has a direct role in influencing the length and quality of operating seasons at golf courses in a given location. Scott and Jones (2006) argued that any direct changes in the length and quality of golf operating seasons (i.e., where golf seasons are currently less than 365 days) induced by climate change would present opportunities to increase the number of rounds played. Increases in golf participation generated by a warmer climate would have benefits for golf course revenues and the economies of seasonal golf-based tourism destinations. However, longer golf seasons in some Canadian locations would also alter the competitive advantage among golf destinations, and would have important implications for golf course management (i.e., irrigation, turf grass selection and turf disease, and pest management).
Limited progress has been made in assessing the potential impact of climate change on the Canadian golf industry. Lamothe & Periard Consultants (1988) used climatological criteria developed by Crowe et al. (1977) for Ontario to define a desirable golf day in Quebec. Under a doubled atmospheric carbon-dioxide scenario (~2050s), they projected that the golf season in southern Quebec would be extended 6 weeks from its current 29-week average season. This early study of climate change and golf, however, had a number of limitations. First, the criteria used to define a desirable golf day were based on expert opinion (from interviews with golf course managers and officials from the Toronto Department of Parks and Recreation), not observations of how actual golf participation varied with weather conditions. Second, their method was unable to provide insight into the projected change in rounds played, which is an important economic indicator for the golf industry. Third, it is unclear how monthly global climate models (GCMs) scenarios were downscaled to provide daily climate change scenarios for this study. Finally, validation of the climate change assessment results for the Quebec area (e.g., using a spatial analogue) was not considered.
More recently, Scott and Jones (2006) attempted to address the weaknesses in this earlier climate change and golf study by developing an empirical regression relationship between daily weather variables and observed rounds played in order to examine the potential impacts of a changed climate on the golf industry in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) (Canada). They concluded that as early as the 2050s, the golfing season in the GTA could be extended 12 weeks and rounds played at an average 18-hole golf course would increase between 27 percent and 61 percent under a range of climate change scenarios; by the 2080s, golf in the GTA could be a year-round intermittent activity under the warmest climate change scenario. Under the warmest climate change scenario for the 2080s, the GTA was projected to have a climate similar to Columbus, Ohio (40[degrees]0'N, 83[degrees]'1'W) today. When Scott and Jones (2006) compared their modelled climate change participation projections for the GTA in the 2080s with current average golf operating seasons in Columbus, their modelled season length was within 3 percent of Columbus' current average season length and modelled average annual rounds played were within 2 percent.
Canada is large and climatically diverse. Consequently, a limitation of previous case studies is that they are not generalizable to other regions of Canada where the climate, and consequently, golf supply and participation differ. In spite of the importance of climate to the Canadian golf industry, no study has yet examined the regional impacts of projected changes in the climate on the industry. This article is concerned with the impacts of climate change for the golf industry in Canada and explores if and when (2020s, 2050s and 2080s) projected climate change would have a meaningful impact on the golf industry in three climatically different regions of the country. The two specific objectives of this study were to: (1) develop a model of climate and golf participation for each study region and (2) use the model to assess how projected climatic changes could affect the future of the golf industry in each region through changes in the length of the golf season and the number of rounds played. Implications of the projected changes for the Canadian golf industry are also explored.
Research Methods
Study areas
Canada is a large country with many prevailing climates. The marine climate of Canada's west coast (Koeppen classification--Cfb) is the mildest and wettest in the country. Moderated by...
|
