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Elemental blindness: John Hinkson argues the predictable failure of the new strategy in Iraq.

Article Excerpt
There is little doubt that the war in Iraq has moved into a new phase out of which any possible 'victory' will require an inversion of the meaning of the word. The underlying facts tell the story.

None could be more important than the momentum now gained for the behind-the-scenes decisions of families across Iraq to re-settle within religious enclaves. Long-standing minority living arrangements where Shia and Sunni have co-existed are now increasingly implicated in tragedy. If ethnic-cleansing cannot be quite the appropriate word to describe what is happening, it is clear that communal suspicion and hatred characterise what is left of the nation. At an everyday level families are preparing for the worst by withdrawing into base communities.

This new reality at the local level has its equivalent at the political level. The helplessness of the government to quell the militias and stem the violence--a helplessness that is in part a consequence of its own implication in the violence--is mirrored by a parliament so demoralised that members do not attend. Increasingly it is rare for the parliament to achieve a quorum for the passing of laws.

Regionally, there is also a momentum towards a new stage. On the one hand the Shia ascendancy in Iran, Iraq and Lebanon. On the other hand, the threat--now made explicit--that the Saudi's are poised to lift their support for the Sunni resistance if there is any weakening of the resolve of the United States. Meanwhile Israel and Turkey stand ready to 'defend their interests'.

This growing sense that the invasion of Iraq by the Anglo-speaking coalition has moved into a demoralising and unmanageable new phase is mirrored in the United States by the mounting struggle of Congress against the war strategy of George W. Bush, who can only assume that failure demands escalation. There are still few signs of any developed insights about the profound wrongs perpetrated upon the...

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