Home | Business News | Browse by Publication | H | Healthcare Strategic Management

Updated planning needed to address physician shortages.

Article Excerpt
Contemporary estimates regarding the U.S. physician work force during the next 10 years are not encouraging for hospital strategists and planners.

The physician work force debate, which has largely focused on whether a shortage will occur, now appears to have coalesced around how significant the deficit will become and its likely effect on both the healthcare industry and the public it serves.

Estimates of the near-term or 10-year future physician shortage range between 85,000 and 96,000, says the Council on Graduate Medical Education, with the Association of American Medical Colleges calling for a 30% increase from 2002 levels in medical school enrollment over a 10-year period. Several key factors are contributing to this expected shortfall.

Increasing demand for services

Although the total U.S. population is projected to grow at a moderate annual rate of less than 1.0% over the next decade (2010-2020), the over-65 age cohort, which consumes the greatest level of healthcare resources, is projected to grow at more than three and a half times that annual rate during the same time period and is expected to increase from 13.0% of the U.S. population in 2010 to 16.3% in 2020, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

In a similar vein, the rising affluency and education levels of the nation's population, particularly in...

View this article FREE - Now for a Limited Time, try Goliath Business News
Free for 3 Days!