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Aluminum demand, pricing trending up with economy: though the economy is rebounding, aluminum producers and distributors remain fearful about the long-term effects of the eroding manufacturing base and the loss of American jobs.

Article Excerpt
Recovery from the latest recession is the slowest since World War II, as consumer confidence remains subdued over concerns about unemployment. But leading economic indicators bode well at least for the next three to six months, said Timothy Hayes, vice president of equity research with BB&T Capital Markets, Richmond, Va.

Hayes was one of three panelists who discussed opportunities in aluminum during the Metals Service Center Institute's annual Aluminum Products Division meeting Nov. 14 in Naples, Fla. The panel was moderated by Tom Stundza of Purchasing magazine.

BB&T forecasts economic growth averaging 4.5 percent in 2004 and 2005. "At 4.5 percent, we view that as a cyclical recovery with job creation," Hayes said.

With business investment in plant and equipment improving, along with nonresidential construction, and lean inventories that must soon be restocked, the economy is poised to improve. "U.S. monetary policy also remains very accommodative. The Fed will probably be on hold in raising rates until well into 2004," he added.

The boom in mortgage refinancings is nearing its end, however,...

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