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Lustgarten: mid-cycle pause little cause for concern.

Article Excerpt
THE U.S. ECONOMY and metals markets are in a mid-cycle pause, during which growth will slow yet remain relatively healthy, according to analyst Eli Lustgarten. President of ESL Consultants and senior vice president at Longbow Research in Independence, Ohio, Lustgarten delivered his economic forecast Feb. 23 at the Metals Service Center Institute's Carbon Conference in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.

A frequent speaker at MSCI events, Lustgarten reported a few years ago that 2004 was the beginning of a multiyear uptrend that would extend at least through 2006. "Not only did it go through 2006, but it is going to extend through the end of the decade. This is an industrial decade," he asserted. "The only guarantee was that the growth wouldn't be linear--and we are in that nonlinear part today."

Though the economy has slowed, fears of recession are unfounded. "Inventories--the biggest cause of recession--have been kept under control, and...

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