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The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall.

Publication: Ethics & International Affairs
Publication Date: 01-DEC-06
Format: Online
Delivery: Immediate Online Access

Article Excerpt
The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall, Ian Bremmer (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2006), 320 pp., $26 cloth.

Things get worse before they get better. Economists noticed that a country's trade deficit follows this pattern when the value of its currency falls. A U.S....

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...weakened dollar, for example, tends to increase the U.S. trade deficit in the short term because, while the price of imports increases immediately, contracts remain constant. After demand shifts from imports to domestic goods, the trade balance improves--often the goal of an intentional currency devaluation. This pattern resembles a "J" on graphs and is therefore called the J curve.

Ian Bremmer, a political scientist who built a business on understanding risk, noticed that countries also follow a J curve when moving from a state of isolation to a state of openness. In this case, the curve describes the relationship between a country's openness and its stability, which is detailed in Bremmer's new book.

Bremmer's premise is that "as the energies of globalization open up the least politically and economically developed areas of the world, as the citizens of closed states learn more about life beyond their borders and discover that...

NOTE: All illustrations and photos have been removed from this article.



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