...billion 2035 and decline gradually thereafter (see Chart 1). This trend results from the interplay between declining fertility and what demographers call population momentum--that is, the inertia population growth from having large child-bearing populations. Currently, the fertility decline is balanced by the still-growing numbers of people of childbearing age. But over the next two to three decades, as the fertility decline becomes stronger and population momentum slows, the number of young people will peak and begin to drop.

[GRAPHIC OMITTED]

Of course, there is a huge variation across developing countries. In many middle-income countries and transition economies, the fertility transition is fairly advanced and the number of young people is actually declining (as in China and Thailand). In others, which are not as far along (for example, Brazil and Vietnam), numbers are currently swelling to a peak or a long plateau. In still others, which are even less advanced in this transition (as in India and the Philippines), the peak will be experienced in the next one to two decades. In yet others (as in Niger and Sierra Leone), the numbers are expected to grow continuously into the foreseeable future.

What does the youth bulge imply for growth and poverty reduction? How can countries minimize the risks and seize the opportunities for this cohort? This article highlights some lessons from the World Bank's upcoming World Development Report 2007 (World Bank, 2006) especially relating to investments that facilitate the transition from school to work.

Risks and opportunities

Some see the large numbers as a risk. For low-income countries, the cost of expanding access to post-primary schooling can be prohibitive. Achieving universal primary and secondary education in low-income countries would require an incremental cost of $34-69 billion a year, or about 3 percent of GDP (Cohen and Bloom, 2005). Add to that the cost of addressing HIV/AIDS--a disease to which young people are particularly prone, given youthful sexual experimentation--and noncommunicable diseases, and financing the fiscal burden, difficult at the best of times, can be daunting. In the case of HIV/AIDS, inaction could...

NOTE: All illustrations and photos have been removed from this article.



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