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The end of the big trade deal: why Doha will be the last of the grand multilateral trade negotiations.

Article Excerpt
The Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations has long been on life support. Those who recall the years in which the Uruguay Round was comatose may regard a near-death experience as a necessary stage before eventual recovery. Perhaps the mid-summer efforts to revive the talks will succeed. But regardless of whether Doha ends in at least a limited agreement, it may well be the last major round of the multilateral trade negotiations that have defined the world trading system since World War II. One way or another, trade policy officials and, indeed, everyone else concerned with international economic arrangements would be wise to begin contingency planning now.

DIAGNOSING DOHA'S PROBLEMS

The Doha negotiations have obviously been going badly for several years. It is less well-recognized that this round of negotiations was in trouble even before it was formally begun. The first attempt at launching a round, at a November 1999 Ministerial in Seattle, was a debacle. The Bush Administration had no more success in its early months. As with almost every aspect of international relations, the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States changed the trade dynamic for a short time. The November 2001 ministerial in Doha was one of the first occasions for the world's governments to show their resolve that terrorism would not rend the fabric of international cooperation. Yet even with this powerful incentive for agreement, and the symbolic gesture of naming it the Doha Development Round, the bare outline of a negotiating agenda took six days to hammer out.

In the intervening five years, Doha has been characterized by missed deadlines and recurring charges by the protagonists that someone else is to blame for the lack of progress. The looming expiration of U.S. fast-track negotiating authority has not, at least to date, effectively focused the minds and energies of...