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Article Excerpt
Abstracts
A.L. CUTHBERT, W.P. ANDERSON AND F.L. HALL: "An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Road Development and Residential Land Development". Using data for the Halifax-Dartmouth region, this paper examines the transportation-land use relationship by quantifying both the impact of road development on residential land development and the impact of residential land development on road development. First, we specify an ordered probit model where residential land parcel development is a function of either the change in accessibility or the distance to a high-speed road, and other explanatory variables. Second, we estimate a spatial lag model to examine the change in accessibility as a function of residential land development and other explanatory variables. Both models are estimated for 5 time periods between 1971 and 1996. The results provide much stronger evidence that road development has an impact on residential land development than residential land development has on road development.
Resumes
A.L. CUTHBERT, W.P. ANDERSON et F.L. HALL: ["An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Road Development and Residential Land Development"]. >. En utilisant des donnees pour la region Halifax-Dartmouth, le but de la recherche est de quantifier l'importance des rapports reciproques entre les transports et l'utilisation du terrain. Les objectifs de cet article sont deux. D'abord nous entreprenons une analyse de l'impact du developpement des routes sur le developpement du terrain residentiel. Deux hypotheses sont retenus par rapport e l'impact du developpement des routes sur le developpement du terrain e des echelles differentes. La premiere hypothese--une evaluation de l'impact e une echelle regionale--est que la probabilite qu'un site donne sera developpe est plus grande si l'accessibilite de ce site augmente. Nous elaborerons une mesure afin de representer l'effet du developpement des routes sur l'accessibilite sur tous les points e travers la region. La deuxieme hypothese--une evaluation de l'impact e une echelle locale--est que la probabilite qu'un site donne sera developpe est plus grande s'il est pret d'une voie rapide. Nous utiliserons la distance > a une voie rapide afin de mesurer les impacts locaux du developpement des routes sur le developpement du terrain residentiel. Pour le faire, nous specifierons un modele > ou le developpement residentiel de parcelles de terrains est fonction du changement de l'accessibilite ou de la distance e une voie rapide, et d'autres variables explicatives. En deuxieme lieu, afin d'evaluer la causalite bidirectionnelle entre le developpement des transports et le developpement du terrain, nous examinerons l'impact du developpement du terrain residentiel sur le developpement des routes. Nous analyserons une troisieme hypothese, a savoir que le developpement du terrain favorise des activites qui donne lieu e des deplacements, ce qui a une influence sur l'expansion du reseau routier, en elaborant un modele de base qui represente le rapport entre le developpement du terrain et le developpement routier. Pour le faire, nous elaborerons un modele de lag spatial afin d'examiner le changement d'accessibilite en tant fonction du developpement residentiel et d'autres variables explicatives. Les modeles sont estimes pendant 5 periodes de temps entre 1971 et 1996. Les resultats demontrent que le developpement des routes a un impact beaucoup plus fort sur le developpement du terrain residentiel que le developpement de terrain residentiel a sur le developpement des routes. Les resultats appuient l'hypothese que dans le cas de la region de Halifax-Dartmouth, le developpement routier a un impact sur le developpement de terrain residentiel, mais n'appuient pas l'hypothese que le developpement du terrain residentiel a un impact sur le developpement routier. De plus, les resultats suggerent que le developpement des routes mene le developpement du terrain.
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There has been much debate regarding the nature of the relationship between transportation and land use. Numerous studies have examined the impact of transportation on land use by studying the economic impacts of transportation investments (for examples, see: Harmatuck 1996; Rietveld 1994; Baird and Lipsman 1990; Forkenbrock and Foster 1990). Many others have examined the impact of land use on transportation by studying the impact of urban form on travel patterns (for examples, see: Kockelman 1997; McNally and Kulkarni 1997; Handy 1993). While other approaches have also been taken, the results continue to raise questions regarding the direction and strength of this relationship. Despite the plethora of research, no prior study has attempted to isolate and quantify the direction or strength of the transportation-land use relationship as this study does.
The goal of the research is to quantify the strength of both directions of the transportation-land use relationship to determine if the relationship is uni-directional or bi-directional. The objectives of this paper are two-fold. First, the paper examines the impact of road development on residential land development. Second, in order to test for bi-directional causality between transportation development and land development, the paper examines the impact of residential land development on road development.
The conceptual underpinnings of the first objective are based on the hypothesis that road development influences land development by changing the spatial pattern of accessibility. Changes to the road network lead to changes in accessibility. In simple terms, accessibility is the potential for interaction. Most measures define accessibility as a function of a measure of attractiveness and the transportation system. The measure of attractiveness reflects the spatial distribution of activities. The transportation system reflects the ease of travel between different locations. This ease of travel is typically measured by travel distance, time, or cost. Both the structure and capacity of the road network influence the accessibility of different locations. Thus, the construction of a new road or the widening of an existing road will increase accessibility because of the resultant changes in travel distances, times, or costs.
Increases in accessibility may then influence land development. Given the transportation and attractiveness elements of the accessibility measure, locations with high accessibility are easier to get to and more attractive as destinations relative to other locations. Theory suggests that as the ease of travel between different locations increases, the propensity for interaction increases. Because of the increased propensity for interaction, locations with higher accessibility are more attractive to land developers. Thus, changes in accessibility may affect land development.
We test two hypotheses regarding the impact of road development on land development at different scales. The first hypothesis, testing the impact at a regional scale, is that the probability a given location will be developed is greater if the accessibility of that location increases. We devise a measure to capture the effect that road development has on accessibility at all points throughout the region. The second hypothesis, testing the impact at a local scale, is that the probability that a given location will be developed is greater if it is close to a high-speed road. We use network distance to a high-speed road to measure local impacts of road development on residential land development.
The second objective of the paper is to examine the other direction of the relationship; i.e., the impact of residential land development on road development. We conceptualize this direction of the transportation-land use relationship where land development results in the establishment of trip-generating activities. When land is undeveloped, it does not generate traffic. However, when land is developed, it then has an associated land use such as residential, commercial, or industrial. These land uses do generate trips, which can affect the road network. Trip generating activities lead to increased traffic on the road network. In response to this traffic, the network may be expanded. New roads will be built or existing roads will be expanded to accommodate the increased traffic. If land development occurs in the absence of road development, there may be political pressure to build more roads. However, if the network is not expanded and the increased traffic is greater than the capacity of the network, the result is a deterioration of travel conditions due to traffic congestion.
We test a third hypothesis that land development creates trip generating activities, which affect the expansion of the road network by formulating a base model that represents the relationship between land development and road development. Specifically, we use data pertaining to the development of the road network in the calculation of an accessibility measure, while we measure land development in terms of residential land development.
The conceptual framework of this research highlights the two possible directions of the transportation-land use relationship. However, the framework gives no indication of the strength of the relationship. Does the road network have a stronger impact on land development or does land development have a stronger impact on the road network? The models offered in this paper address these questions. The results of this research have important policy implications. Given the numerous environmental impacts of both road and land development, there is an increased urgency for policy makers to make informed decisions. With a better understanding of the relationship between road development and land development, the impacts of such development may be addressed.
The Study Area
The Halifax Regional Municipality covers a 6200 square kilometre area along the southern shore of the Province of Nova Scotia. Located within the municipality are the cities of Halifax and Dartmouth, and the town of Bedford. Because Halifax serves as the provincial capital and regional service centre, the regions' unemployment rate is low at 8.6 % compared to the provincial rate of 13.3 %. The region experienced a 6.4 % population growth rate (annual average) over the period 1971 to 1996. The region had...
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