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All shook up: if the 1906 San Francisco earthquake occurred today, insured losses would likely reach $80 billion; however, there are many scenarios capable of producing even greater losses.

Article Excerpt
Key Points

* The 1906 San Francisco earthquake remains one of the most significant earthquakes in U.S. history, particularly because the actions that followed had a far-reaching impact on the understanding of earthquakes and their effects.

* AIR Worldwide estimates a recurrence of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake would result in nearly $80 billion of insured property losses, based on total property losses approaching $300 billion.

* Leading companies are increasingly employing catastrophe models to minimize the risk of extreme events.

This month marks the 100th anniversary of the Great San Francisco Earthquake and Fire of 1906, a catastrophe that impacted thousands of lives, caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damage and generated aftershocks in the scientific. engineering and insurance communities that continue to resonate today. Enormous advances have been made in scientists' understanding of what causes earthquakes and in builders' ability to erect structures that have a better chance of withstanding them. Nevertheless, if an earthquake of similar magnitude were to occur in a major metropolitan area today, the losses would be staggering.

A Terrific Trembling

At 5:12 a.m. on April 18, 1906, residents throughout the San Francisco Bay area were rudely awakened by the unmistakable rumblings of an earthquake. The foreshock proved to be just a preview of the main event Less than 30 seconds later, a moment magnitude 7.9 earthquake struck with an epicenter located just seven miles from the center of San Francisco. Moment magnitude measures total energy released by an earthquake.

The quake ruptured approximately 290 miles of the San Andreas fault. It was felt from Oregon to south of Los Angeles and as far east as central Nevada. A horizontal displacement of more than 20 feet was recorded in Marin County.

While the event has come to be known as the San Francisco earthquake, ground shaking of at least equal severity was experienced at many, though less populous, locations along the length of the rupture. To the south, the business district of San Jose was left in ruins, while some 200 miles to the north, massive landslides occurred in and near Petrolia. Santa Rosa was located in a...

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