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Article Excerpt
The terrorist attacks of September 11th 2001, and subsequent suicide attacks in Africa, Russia, Spain and the Middle East, have alerted Western countries to the new threat posed by large-scale coordinated terror attacks. The increasing global spread of the terrorist threat means that increasing numbers of people, previously remote from conflict areas, are now faced with threats either at home or when travelling or living overseas. However, research on this topic has been largely confined to the discipline of political science or military medicine, and has rarely investigated the part played by psychological factors in predicting threat perception or its consequences (Levant, Barbanel, & DeLeon, 2004; Silke, 2003, 2004).
A number of social psychological theories can be employed to help us understand threat perception and its consequences (Moghaddam & Marsella, 2004). However, with the exception of researchers working on terror management theory (TMT), briefly reviewed below, few social psychologists have attempted to integrate and test these in a coherent model of terrorism and its consequences. In this paper, we bring together several complementary theoretical approaches in an attempt to gain a greater insight into how individuals perceive and cope with this increasing threat.
Perceiving terror
Several individual and wider group-level factors are likely to underlie how an individual perceives terror threats (Pyszczynski, Solomon, & Greenberg, 2003). In Study 1, we consider the role of values, the influence of others (normative factors) and the role of gender in terror perception. In Study 2, we add the influence of location and age as additional predictors of perceived threat.
Values and threat perception
The study of values has re-emerged as a major topic for social psychological investigation in the past decade, with value systems seen as important superordinate cognitive structures with considerable implications for individual behaviour (Rohan, 2000; Schwartz & Bilsky, 1990). Research on trauma has suggested that an understanding of core personality and values may better predict variations in trauma symptoms than the actual severity of a trauma (Durodie, 2003). At the same time, traumatic life events can challenge an individual's 'assumptive world', undermining implicit but fundamental beliefs and values (Janoff-Bulman, 1989). For example, work using the personality dimension of authoritarianism suggests that an increase in perceptions of the world as a dangerous and threatening place can lead to a desire for security and the development of authoritarian attitudes (Duckitt & Fisher, 2003). In the present research, we considered specific values taken from a widely used model circumplex model of values in assessing the role of values in predicting terror perception (Schwartz, 1992).
Building on Rokeach's conceptualization of values (Rokeach, 1973), Schwartz et al. describe 10 individual-level value types, which satisfy biological needs, interactional requirements and institutional and social demands for group welfare and survival (Schwartz & Bilsky, 1987). These values are organized in a quasi-circumplex format, and can be divided along two dimensions (see Table 1). Dimension 1 compares openness to change (which emphasizes independent thought and action and change, and is represented by values of self-direction and stimulation) with conservation (which stresses submission and self-restriction and includes values of conformity, tradition and security). Dimension 2 contrasts a more egalitarian self-transcendence (represented by universalism and benevolence values) with self-enhancement (the values of achievement and power--values that emphasize the pursuit of success and dominance over others). A 10th value, hedonism, is related to both openness to change and self-enhancement (Schwartz, 1994). Those who hold strong security values emphasize the safety of both their intimate relationships and the wider society. Such individuals might be expected to show the greatest fear of a terror attack in general. In contrast, stimulation values are the values most directly opposed to security in the Schwartz circumflex model. Stimulation values emphasize a daring, varied life, which might be expected to correlate with behaviours, which involve exposure to enhanced terrorism risk (e.g. travelling overseas to potentially 'risky' regions). We therefore anticipate a negative correlation between stimulation values and general threat perception. Finally, benevolence values concern the preservation of the welfare of intimate others. Previous studies have suggested the development of relatively strong, 'benevolent' ties following terror incidents (Vertzberger, 1997), and we predict a significant correlation between benevolence values and threat perception, particularly the personal sense of threat that affects the individual or their immediate family. Partial support for these hypotheses was evident from two studies using the Schwartz value scale following actual terror attacks. Frink, Rose, and Canty (2004) reported significant increases in security values following the Oklahoma terrorist bombing in the US. In a naturally occurring, 'quasi-experimental' study, Verkasalo, Goodwin, and Bezmenova (in press) compared the values of matched groups of Finnish school children and university students before and after the 9/11 attacks. In their study, security values rose significantly in the aftermath of the attacks. In contrast, levels of 'stimulation' were lower following the terrorist incidents.
Normative influences
Perceptions of terror threat do not exist in a vacuum; those around us are likely to influence our risk perceptions (Kaniasty & Norris, 2004). Almost seven decades of social psychological research have underlined the importance of group norms in determining the assessment of a situation (Sherif, 1936). Hatfield and Rapson (2004) describe a process of 'emotional contagion', in which people 'catch' other's emotions, mimicking the emotional experiences of others around them. During times of enhanced, shared threat, individuals may often seek to 'socially share' with others their anxieties in an attempt to reduce such anxiety, or may feel reassured by significant members of their social networks about the risks posed (Dumont, Yzerbyt, Wigboldus, & Gordijn, 2003). The theory of planned action (Ajzen, 1991) suggests group norms are also likely to be important in forming an intention to respond. We hypothesize a significant positive correlation between an individual's perception of threat of attack and the perception of attack probability reported by his or her friends and family.
Location
Perceptions of threat are likely to be at least partly based on actual risk, with this actual risk likely to vary across locations (Huddy, Feldman, Capleos, & Provost, 2002). However, risk perceptions are also likely to be influenced by the difficulties involved in changing everyday behavioural patterns, and the control individuals have over how and where they spend their time. We examined the impact of location on the risk perception of students from a range of locations, a cohort whose work-week gave them some control over their travel schedule. Using a dissonance approach, we suggested that those who live and study in 'high risk' areas will find themselves in a 'dissonant state' where their desire for safety may clash with their potential 'high risk' habitat (Jonas, Greenberg, & Frey, 2003). As a result, we predicted that this group will downplay the perceived threat. We also predicted that those living outside London (in our study in Oxford, 65 miles from Central London) would also be less likely to see themselves at risk. In contrast, we predicted that those living in suburban locations--within the boundaries of London but not in a central location--will have neither dissonance nor distance reasons for downplaying the terror threat. We therefore hypothesize that this group will perceive the highest risk of attack.
Age
Although there is little systematic research on this topic, Thomas (2003) reports relatively high rates of anxiety amongst his middle-aged sample following the September 11th attacks compared with other sample data that has examined reactions to this event. We tentatively suggest that older respondents will exhibit greater anxiety.
Gender
Girls and women have been shown to report greater threat following traumatic events than boys or men (Norris et al., 2002; Raviv, Sadey, Raviv, Silberstein, & Diver, 2000), and women have generally been reported to experience higher rates of anxiety than men following a terror threat (Huddy et al., 2002)....
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