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Article Excerpt
Knowlton et al. (2004) argued that increasing temperatures associated with climate change will increase urban ozone and related health risks. They have disregarded important factors in reaching this conclusion.
During the last 20 years, nationwide exceedances of the federal 1-hr ozone standard declined 90%, and the June-August average of daily 1-hr peak ozone levels declined 10% (Schwartz et al., in press), presumably with ensuing declines in ozone-related mortality. Ozone declined despite a roughly 1[degrees]C increase in urban temperatures during the last few decades (Karl et al. 1988). Knowlton et al. (2004) did not explain why we should expect the future to be the opposite of the past.
Knowlton et al. (2004) used ozone-precursor [nitrogen oxides (N[O.sub.x]) and volatile organic compound (VOC)] emissions estimates for 1996 to predict ozone levels in the 2050s. However, even current emissions are substantially lower than 1996 levels, while, as shown below, already-adopted U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) requirements will eliminate most remaining ozone-precursor emissions, even after accounting for growth.
The U.S. EPA (2003) estimated that between 1996 and 2001, total emissions of N[O.sub.x] and VOC declined, 10 and 14%, respectively. [The U.S. EPA updated its...
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