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Statistical appendix.

Article Excerpt
The statistical appendix presents historical data, as well as projections. It comprises five sections: Assumptions, What's New, Data and Conventions, Classification of Countries, and Statistical Tables. The assumptions underlying the estimates and projections for 2005-06 and the medium-term scenario for 2007-10 are summarized in the first section. The second section presents a brief description of changes to the database and statistical tables. The third section provides a general description of the data, and of the conventions used for calculating country group composites. The classification of countries in the various groups presented in the World Economic Outlook is summarized in the fourth section.

The last, and main, section comprises the statistical tables. Data in these tables have been compiled on the basis of information available through end-March 2005. The figures for 2005 and beyond are shown with the same degree of precision as the historical figures solely for convenience; since they are projections, the same degree of accuracy is not to be inferred.

Assumptions

Real effective exchange rates for the advanced economies are assumed to remain constant at their average levels during the period January 31-February 28, 2005. For 2005 and 2006, these assumptions imply average U.S. dollar/SDR conversion rates of 1.522 for both years, U.S. dollar/ euro conversion rate of 1.31 for both years, and yen/U.S. dollar conversion rates of 105.2 and 104.4, respectively.

It is assumed that the price of oil will average $46.50 a barrel in 2005 and $43.75 a barrel in 2006.

Established policies of national authorities are assumed to be maintained. The more specific policy assumptions underlying the projections for selected advanced economies are described in Box A1.

Box A1. Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Advanced Economies The short-term fiscal policy assumptions used in the World Economic Outlook are based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for differences between the national authorities and the IMF staff regarding macroeconomic assumptions and projected fiscal outturns. The medium-term fiscal projections incorporate policy measures that are judged likely to be implemented. In cases where the IMF staff has insufficient information to assess the authorities' budget intentions and prospects for policy implementation, an unchanged structural primary balance is assumed, unless otherwise indicated. Specific assumptions used in some of the advanced economies follow (see also Tables 12-14 in the Statistical Appendix for data on fiscal and structural balances). (1) United States. The fiscal projections are based on the Administration's FY2006 Budget projections (February 7, 2005) adjusted to take into account: (1) differences in macroeconomic assumptions; (2) IMF staff assumptions about Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) relief; and (3) IMF staff assumptions about additional defense spending using analysis by the Congressional Budget Office. Japan. The medium-term fiscal projections assume that expenditure and revenue of the general government (excluding social security) are adjusted in line with the current government target to achieve a primary fiscal balance by the early 2010s. Germany. Fiscal projections for 2005-10 are based on IMF staff macroeconomic assumptions and estimates of fiscal adjustment measures and structural reforms. France. The projections for 2005 are based on the initial budget adjusted for the IMF staff macroeconomic assumptions and IMF staff projected overruns in social security expenditures. For 2006-08, the projections are based on the intentions underlying the 2006-08 Stability Program Update adjusted for the IMF staff macroeconomic assumptions and lower projections of nontax revenue. For 2009-10, the staff assumes unchanged tax policies and real expenditure growth as in the Stability Program Update for 2008. Italy. The 2005 projection is based on the IMF staff macroeconomic assumptions and its assessment of the authorities' budget. Beyond 2005, projections start with the assumption of constant structural primary balance, and are then adjusted for the savings from the ongoing pension reform (impact starting from 2008). United Kingdom. The fiscal projections are based on information provided in the December 2004 Pre-Budget Report. Additionally, the projections incorporate the most recent statistical releases from the Office for National Statistics, including provisional budgetary outturns through 2004:Q4. Canada. Projections are based on the 2004 budget, and updated with the 2004 Economic and Fiscal Update, released in November 2004. The federal government balance is the desk's estimate of the planning surplus (budgetary balance less contingency and economic reserves). Australia. The fiscal projections through the fiscal year 2007/08 are based on the 2004/05 Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook published in December 2004. Subsequently, the IMF staff assumes no change in policies. Austria. Fiscal figures for 2004 are based on the authorities' estimated outturn. Projections for 2005-06 are based on the budgets for 2005 and 2006. Projections for 2007-08 are based on the Austrian Stability Program (2004-08). For 2009-10, projections assume unchanged overall and structural balances from those in 2008. Belgium. Fiscal projections...

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