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...bunches may cycle. Given the number of international conditions that seem to correlate with these two waves (hegemonic decline, globalization, 'Empire,' and so forth), we may be dealing with cycles of terrorism, rather than isolated periods (for a further elaboration of this idea, see Bergesen and Lizardo, 2002, 2004, 2005; Lizardo and Bergesen, 2003). If this is the case, then terrorism research should include in its analysis comparative studies of different outbreaks, or waves, of terrorism. We present a research agenda for such an analysis with suggestions for comparisons at different levels of analysis, from the individual terrorist event through waves to spirals of waves over time.
Second, we suggest a new direction for the conceptualization and the measurement of distinctly transnational terrorism. A technique is presented that allows the measurement of different states of the globalization or international spread of terrorist incidents. Some preliminary data then are gathered to examine the transnational spread of terrorist incidents. We use the terms transnational and international interchangeably, as in the literature both terms are used for terrorist events where the perpetrator or target are from different countries. Before we turn to these research suggestions, we begin with a review of definitions of terrorism.
Definitions of Terrorism
Much of the early work in terrorism research centered upon various definitions (see the discussions in Cooper, 2001: Gibbs, 1989; Hoffman, 1999; Jenkins, 2001; Ruby, 2002; Schmid and Jongman, 1988; Senechal de la Roche, 1996, 2001), but as Jenkins (2001) notes, a consensus seems to be emerging on the definition of terrorism. For example, academic researchers Walter Enders and Todd Sandler (2002b) argue terrorism involves a focus upon underlying political, social, or religious motives, as its violence is separable from crime, personal vengeance, or the act of someone mentally deranged. The act itself seems to involve attempts at influencing an audience, which is often not that of the victims themselves. Terrorism is also most often directed toward noncombatants or civilians and is 'random,' so that everyone feels at risk. For such terrorists:
Terrorism is the premeditated use or threat of use of extranormal violence or brutality by subnational groups to obtain a political, religious, or ideological objective through intimidation of a huge audience, usually not directly involved with the policy making that the terrorists seek to influence. (Enders and Sandler, 2002b: 145-6)
Government institutions, such as the US Department of State, define terrorism somewhat similarly, as 'politically motivated violence perpetrated against noncombatant targets by subnational groups or clandestine agents, usually intended to influence an audience' (Ruby, 2002: 10). And, interestingly enough, this is quite similar to Chomsky's (2001: 19) definition: 'Terrorism is the use of coercive means aimed at populations in an effort to achieve political, religious, or other aims.' Similar to these is Stern's (1999: 30) definition of terrorism as 'an act or threat of violence against non-combatants, with the objective of intimidating or otherwise influencing an audience or audiences.' The point is that academic researchers, government agencies, and critics of American foreign policy increasingly seem to agree about the essence of terrorism. This conception leaves open questions of motivation and ideology, which is important for researchers who wish to focus comparatively upon different historical periods and must be flexible enough to include the ideology of anarchists and social revolutionaries at the end of the 19th century and fundamental Islamic beliefs in the early 21st century. It also leaves open the question of whether the violence is performed by the state or subnational groups. We acknowledge the importance of state terrorism (Chomsky, 2001; Oliverio, 1998) as an object of research, but this particular study focuses only on subnational groups.
Is Transnational Terrorism Changing?
The conventional wisdom of researchers and commentators is that during the 1990s the world entered a new phase of terrorism that departed dramatically from what went before. It is variously called the 'new terrorism' (Jenkins, 2001; Lesser et al., 1999) or spoken of as involving 'new types of post-Cold War terrorists' (Hudson, 1999: 5), 'a new breed of terrorist' (Stern, 1999: 8), a 'new generation of terrorists' (Hoffman, 1999), 'terror in the mind of God' (Jurgensmeyer, 2000), a 'clash of fundamentalisms' (Ali, 2002), or simply a new 'wave' of terrorism (Rapoport, 1999, 2001). In general, the argument is that terrorism is changing in specific ways.
First, there is a shift in organization toward a network form. It is argued that newer terrorist organizations have moved away from the older model of professionally trained terrorists operating within hierarchical organizations with a central command chain toward a looser organization with a less clear structure. Similarly, whereas from the 1960s through the 1980s groups were more clearly nationally bound (German, Japanese, Italian, Spanish, Irish, Palestinian, etc.), newer organizations such as Al Qaeda have members from various nationalities and organizational sites outside the leadership's country of origin.
Second, it appears that the identities of transnational terrorist groups are more difficult to identify, as they seem less often to claim responsibility for specific acts. The bombing of the US embassies in Africa and the events of 11 September although purportedly organized by Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda, were not immediately claimed by that organization. This contrasts with earlier terrorist organizations, which more directly took responsibility for their actions and clearly defined who they were, often with elaborate radical political ideologies.
Third, demands made by terrorist organizations do not seem to appear as often as before, and what they stand for seems more vague and hazy. The group Black September demanded the release of comrades when they attacked Israeli athletes at the 1972 Munich Olympics; the IRA wants the British out of Northern Ireland, the PLO wants the Israelis out of the West Bank, and Basque independence is a clear desire of ETA. Also, the Marxist radical left logic behind earlier attacks on businessmen, diplomats, and so forth were well known. In contrast there were no demands surrounding the 1998 US embassy attacks or the events of 11 September.
Fourth, there seems to be an ideological shift from more political to more religious motives, at least in the explicit ideology of the group. What has been called the new religious terrorism, or holy terrorism, reflects the increasing prevalence of religion in the ideology of terrorist organizations, the most notable being Islamic fundamentalism, or political Islam, but also Christian fundamentalism (anti-abortion terrorism), Messianic Zionism (behind Yitzhak Rabin's assassination) or the religious sect, such as the Aum Shinrikyo, a Japanese terrorist group that released poisonous gas in a Tokyo subway in 1995. There also seems to be an increase in groups with more vague millennial and religious ideologies than earlier radical groups such as the German Red Army Faction, the Italian Red Brigades, or the Japanese Red Army....
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