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Forecasting university enrollment.

Article Excerpt
Abstract

This article attempts to provide a framework for forecasting enrollments accurately and in a timely fashion. Several projection models are developed for predicting full-time, first-time enrollment. A case of a regional University in New Jersey with a large college of business--which we will call COB (standing for College of Business, its primary focus) for purposes of anonymity--is used to provide a historical example. Several methodologies are suggested.

Background of the Study

Forecasting enrollments is of great interest to university administrators who wish to utilize their resources efficiently. Cassuto (1996) advocated the life cycle model using logistic regression for forecasting enrollment of a newly created university. Bassinet al. (1997) describe a model for making forecasts for one group of students, freshmen with a locally defined set of academic criteria, and suggest that a reasonable forecast enables the university to create appropriate selection criteria, establish realistic enrollment goals, and allow the university to craft market-based academic programs. Using a historical case study, the objectives of this report are to provide a methodology:

1. To forecast enrollments in order to enhance financial budgeting as well as strategic and research planning

2. To determine and analyze external factors responsible for enrollment

3. To analyze the basis for competitive analysis

To achieve these objectives, analyses of the institution and its environments are presented. Since 70 to 80 percent of COB enrollments are in-state residents, and more than 95% of the first-time, full-time (FT/FT) students are under 21 years of age, the focal unit of analysis for this report has been NJ high school graduates. An analysis of the relationship between enrollment and the number of high school graduates shows a strong correlation. The university, however, was losing market share as the percentage of NJ high school graduates it was able to attract was declining over time.

Analyses herein are provided for FT/FT student head counts, excluding FT/FT freshmen in the two-year programs such as the dental hygiene program, allied health program, and the two-year college for the fall semesters 1986 and 1993.

Fall semesters were used since they represent the semesters in which the bulk of FT/FT freshmen are enrolled. (Krohn, 1994). This is confirmed by national trends indicating that 92.5% of college freshmen continue right from high school, without a pause (Case, 1994).

Institutional Background

Since 1942, when COB was founded, until the early 1980's, the University had enjoyed constant growth and prosperity. Due to regional economic growth, the baby boom generation and a "favorable" political climate, enrollment at COB had risen steadily. As a result, management at COB invested heavily in physical facilities, with little regard to long-term trends, growing from a single campus to a three-campus configuration, with two overseas campuses in the Virgin Islands and England.

The baby boom generation aged and the University did not change its marketing orientation. Catering to the traditional college age crowd, 18 to 21, the University had...

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