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The last phase of the projections process is evaluating the projections after actual data are available. And so, when employment data for 2000 became available, it was time to analyze the 1988-2000 employment projections--the basis for the 1990-91 Handbook. Evaluating past employment projections serves two purposes. First, projections users--such as career guidance counselors, jobseekers, and students--can assess the reliability of current information based on BLS' track record. Second, identifying errors and biases in past projections enables BLS economists to improve the accuracy of subsequent projections.
This article compares projected outlook with actual employment for selected occupations, identifies sources of error in developing the projections, and assesses the overall reliability of BLS job outlook information. A box on page 9 explains the employment projections process, including the evaluation stage. The table beginning on page 12 provides a comparison of projected and actual employment data for more than 300 occupations for which projections were developed.
Comparing projected with actual employment
The 1988-2000 occupational employment projections covered 491 occupations. These projections were the basis for job outlook information in the 1990-91 Occupational Outlook Handbook, which included about 250 detailed occupations. This evaluation includes information on 338 of the occupations for which projections were developed.
Growth descriptors
Growth descriptors give readers a general impression of the job outlook for each occupation. In most cases, it is not necessary to have an exact match between the projected and actual growth descriptors to get an accurate view of employment growth. For example, employment of accountants and auditors was projected to grow faster than average but actually grew at an average rate. The assumptions about the causes of growth were most likely correct; however, their effects on employment were overestimated.
The following growth descriptors were used to describe ranges of employment growth or decline between 1988 and 2000:
Projected employment Growth descriptor change, 1988-2000 Much faster than average Increase 31 percent or more Faster than average Increase 20 to 30 percent About as fast as average Increase 11 to 19 percent More slowly than average Increase 4 to 10 percent Little or no change Increase or decrease 3 percent or less Decline Decrease 4 percent or more
Because the adjectives describing growth are based on established numerical cutoffs, the descriptors for many occupations would have been different if the numerical projection had been 1 or 2 percentage points higher or lower. This sensitivity sometimes caused projected and actual descriptors to differ when projected and actual employment levels were close.
Analyzing descriptors. The Handbook does not include all occupations for which employment is projected. However, all 338 occupations included in this evaluation were analyzed by their growth adjective, regardless of whether they appeared in the Handbook. Growth descriptors based on projected employment change were compared with descriptors corresponding to actual growth. Of the 338 occupations in this evaluation, 87 had actual employment changes that matched the projected adjective; another 100 had employment changes that were one category higher or lower. Twelve occupations had employment changes that were five categories away. In these cases, the occupation was either projected to grow much faster than average and actually declined or was projected to decline and actually grew much faster than average.
The 1988-2000 projections, like past projections, are conservative; this is evident in the distribution of projected and actual growth adjectives. Average growth was the most common projection of employment for occupations, but most occupations had employment that actually either grew much faster than the average or declined. About 30 percent of the occupations were projected to have average growth, but about 15 percent actually did. Slightly more than 26 percent of the occupations were projected to either grow faster than the average or decline; however, 57 percent of the occupations fell into 1 of these 2 categories.
The growth categories of much faster than average and declining were most accurate in terms of the number of occupations that actually fell into their projected categories. More than 65 percent of occupations projected to grow much faster than average, and half of the occupations projected to decline, actually fell into their respective categories. About 21 percent of occupations that were projected to have average growth actually had average growth. The higher degree of accuracy in the extreme growth categories suggests that the accuracy of projections is greatest where there is either a strong growth or a strong decline in occupational trends.
Fastest growing occupations. Greater accuracy in the extreme growth categories is evident in the 20 fastest growing occupations. All of these occupations were projected to have much faster than average growth, and employment in all but five of them actually grew much faster than average. In many cases, the projection was relatively close, within a few thousand workers or a few percentage points. For example, the occupation of paralegals and legal assistants was projected to be the fastest growing between 1988 and 2000, with a projected rate of increase of 75 percent. It actually increased 71 percent. The high degree of accuracy suggests that it was correct to assume that more paralegals would be hired because of an increase in the demand for legal services and because paralegals often do many of the same tasks that lawyers do but for lower fees.
Among the 20 projected fastest growing occupations, 3 of the 5 that did not grow much faster than the average still had positive growth rates. Others that were projected to have slow growth actually increased faster than projected. An analysis of fast growing occupations suggests that the basic growth assumptions were usually accurate, but their effects on employment were either under- or over-estimated.
For example, increased use of computers and other office equipment led to a projection of much faster than average employment growth for data processing equipment repairers. However, that occupation's growth may have been limited because equipment improvements led to fewer breakdowns. It is possible that the use of computer equipment in offices increased less than assumed or that the quality of the technology proved higher than assumed. Either way, the fundamental assumptions of growth for this occupation were correct: employment of data processing equipment repairers grew, but at an average rate.
Among the 20 occupations that actually grew fastest, all had been projected to grow, and 15 were projected to grow either faster or much faster than the average. For each occupation, actual growth rates were significantly higher than projected, again showing the tendency toward conservative projections.
The occupation that had the fastest employment growth between 1988 and 2000 was social and human service assistants. Its employment was projected to grow 45 percent, much faster than the average, but actually grew 141 percent--over 3 times as fast. Even though the growth trend was identified, BLS analysts underestimated the demand for workers who would be needed to administer job training and other programs, including those for the poor, elderly, disabled, or mentally ill. A change in welfare laws in the 1990s, from benefits-based programs to work-based initiatives, required an increase in the number of job-training facilities. That was a main reason for the large underestimate of employment growth.
Many of the projected and actual fastest growing occupations were either professional or service occupations. Most of the occupations were in healthcare or social services, reflecting the trend of high growth in these areas because of a growing and aging population. In particular, employment in the occupations of emergency medical technicians and paramedics increased significantly more than projected.
Another area with fast growth rates was amusement and recreation services. Among the occupations in which employment increased rapidly were actors, directors, and producers; counter and rental clerks; ushers, lobby attendants, and ticket takers; and amusement and recreation attendants: The large increases in these occupations are attributable to the strong growth in leisure activities, reflecting a rise in the population that had growing incomes and leisure time.
A third group of occupations among the 20 projected or actual fastest growing included some administrative support occupations. Employment of bill and account collectors was the fourth fastest growing, due to increasing consumer debt and creditors' desire--especially in healthcare--to collect their payments. Shipping, receiving, and traffic clerks also had rapid employment growth. Slower than average growth was projected due to increased automation in the packaging and shipping processes, but the effects of automation on this occupation either were outpaced by economic growth or were overestimated. Employment of teacher assistants also grew more rapidly than expected because of increasing school enrollments.
Declining occupations. Just as the basic assumptions were accurate for fast-growing occupations, assumptions also were accurate for occupational declines. For example, of the projected 20 fastest declining occupations, more than half actually declined, with 7 of the occupations among the fastest declining. And like those of fast-growing occupations, projections of declining occupations were conservative. Rates of decline in most occupations were much higher than projected.
Unlike the varied reasons for difference, between actual and projected fast-growth occupations, however, one reason stands out in comparing actual with projected declines: the underestimated effects of technological advance on employment. The decline in employment of railroad brake, signal, and switch operators, for example, was more rapid than projected because of an increased use of computer-controlled train cars. These cars operate the brakes, doors, alert systems, and signals automatically, thus reducing the number of workers needed to operate a train.
Gains in technology also were responsible for fast employment declines in textile occupations, such as garment sewing machine operators and precision shoe and leather workers and repairers. Other groups of occupations with fast declines in employment because of technology include some administrative support workers--such as word processors and typists--and machinery assemblers, installers, and repairers--such as precision aircraft assemblers.
Unexpected changes in technology affected occupations in ways that could not be anticipated at the time the projections were made. In many cases, new technology caused employment declines in occupations that were projected to grow. During the 1990s, the most significant technological advance was the Internet, from which emerged electronic commerce, or e-commerce. The Internet and e-commerce allow consumers to research and purchase an assortment of goods and services directly from suppliers, thereby reducing the need for buyers and sales agents to act as go-betweens. One group of occupations whose employment was adversely affected by the Internet was sales occupations, specifically wholesale and retail buyers, except farm products; purchasing managers; insurance sales agents; real estate sales agents; and travel agents.
The rise of the Internet had a positive effect on employment growth in some occupations, however. Employment of telephone and cable TV line installers and repairers was projected to be among the top...
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