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...domestic agenda. sharpening partisan divide among the electorate, especially lifestyle issues, shows that Bush lacks the broad support his father enjoyed immediately after the first Gulf War. To win in 2004, Democrats must find a way to neutralize Bush's advantages on security, run on issues that emphasize job security, and prevent the president from winning over Hispanic voters.
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Recent history tells us that the third year of a presidential term is often a difficult one for the incumbent. In late 1963, for example, John F. Kennedy's approval rating dipped to 58 percent thanks to his support for civil rights legislation. (1) Kennedy's stance was unpopular in the South, and he traveled to Dallas on that fateful November day to shore up his sagging support there. Lyndon B. Johnson also suffered from the third year blues. By 1967, only 46 percent of LBJ's fellow Americans gave him positive marks, and he was receiving just 40 percent of the vote in a hypothetical match-up against Richard M. Nixon. (2) Nixon, too, suffered from the third year doldrums. At the end of 1971, his job rating stood at just 50 percent, (3) and in a prospective three-way race with Democrat Edmund S. Muskie and independent George C. Wallace, Nixon received 42 percent; Muskie, 42 percent; and Wallace, 11 percent. (4) Jimmy Carter had his third-year woes with the seizing of American hostages in Iran, while the "misery index"--the combination of inflation and unemployment--remained stubbornly high. In November 1979, prior to the hostage-taking, only 38 percent approved of Carter's performance. (5) George H. W. Bush also suffered from the third-year blues. Although he led the U.S. to victory in the 1991 Persian Gulf War, the recession deepened and by year's end Patrick J. Buchanan threw his hat into the GOP presidential primaries. Bush's stratospheric 89 percent approval rating dropped to 47 percent, while an equal number disapproved of his job performance. (6) Bill Clinton had a bad case of the third-year blues in 1995, following the devastating Democratic losses in the 1994 midterm elections. At a famous press conference, Clinton was forced to assert that he remained "relevant" to the goings-on in Washington, D.C. (7) By year's end, only 51 percent approved of Clinton's job performance; 44 percent disapproved. (8) Though Clinton's numbers would improve, he was held to 49 percent of the vote the following November.
Ronald Reagan defied recent history, as his approval ratings rose throughout calendar year 1983. In January, an unhealthy 38 percent said they liked the way Reagan was doing his job. (9) But by year's end an improving economy boosted Reagan's rating to 54 percent. (10) Reagan was headed to a landslide reelection victory over Democrat Walter F. Mondale.
Is Reagan about to receive some company in the person of George W. Bush? At first glance, it would seem so. Following the quick dispatch by U.S. and coalition forces of Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq, Bush's job approval rating soared. A Zogby poll taken prior to the war's end showed Bush's job approval rating at 61 percent-up from 53 percent a month earlier. (11) A Gallup poll conducted immediately after coalition forces captured Baghdad showed Bush with an even healthier 71 percent job approval score. (12)
But prior to the Iraq war, there was plenty of evidence suggesting that Bush was vulnerable to the rhythms of history. On the eve of...
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