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Turkey says no ... Or will it finally be yes?

Article Excerpt
These have been interesting times in Turkey. In early February the Grand National Assembly--the parliament--met and refused to support the government's recommendation to allow 62,0000 US troops into the country so that a second front against Iraq could be opened across Turkey's borders. The Americans would also have been given the use of Turkish ports and air bases. Tied into the bill was a second recommendation that the Turkish army be allowed to cross the border into northern Iraq and set up a 12 kilometre deep buffer zone to absorb an expected flood of refugees. That went down too. More MPs voted for the recommendations than against--264 to 250 with 19 abstentions--but the legislation needed a simple minority to pass and it feel just short of the numbers required.

This decision of the Parliament stunned the Americans. Negotiations between themselves and the Turks had begun weeks before. The vote was postponed twice, apparently because the ruling Justice and Development Party (the AK Party) was not confident that it had the numbers. The government had negotiated a compensation package of $26 billion, nearly $20 billion of which would given as a loan, thus easing present straitened financial circumstances but plunging the country into even greater foreign debt. The recommendation in favour of allowing in the Americans did not mean that the government supported this war. It did not support it at all but its thinking was guided by several certainties--that the Americans were going to attack come what may and that Turkey was going to be caught up in the consequences whatever decision it took. Consequently let the Americans in--so went the logic--the war will be shorter, our costs will be partly underwritten and we will have some say in the reconstruction of Iraq once the shooting stops.

This pragmatic evaluation was not shared by the general public. Opinion polls showed 94 per cent of the people against. A mass rally in Ankara the day the vote...

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