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...and an aspiration every reasonable person will endorse. But it is certainly not an imminent accomplishment -- not yet even the predominant trend.
The underlying reality is that U.S. military forces are being prepared for extended confrontation, not political accommodation. Their projected capabilities are inherently provocative not only to Russia, but to China as well. They are also vulnerable to Russian and Chinese reactions, particularly in space, where some of the most critical assets are based. Soothing rhetoric cannot indefinitely obscure the ominous implications. It is time for everyone to pay attention.
The treaty negotiated in Moscow limits the number of strategic nuclear warheads that are to be operationally deployed by their respective military establishments on December 31, 2012 -- on which day the treaty expires. At first glance, that appears to establish the principle of legal restraint for both nuclear forces. But the treaty sets no significant limit on destructive capabilities. The imposed ceiling of 2,200 operationally deployed nuclear warheads permits the United States, for instance, a sufficient number of immediately available nuclear weapons to destroy much of the Russian nuclear arsenal in a first strike -- and to simultaneously devastate Russia's conventional forces, political leadership, and industrial base. Moreover, the treaty covers only those weapons that are present at the operational bases of intercontinental range forces, allowing both signatories to retain 'reserve' inventories greatly in excess of the 2,200 warhead ceiling. Reserve warheads could be 'uploaded' onto delivery vehicles a nd returned to immediately available status in a short period of time.
So, for the foreseeable future, both nations will retain nuclear weapons far in excess of the number needed for any conceivable purpose -- and there are no supplementary restraints. As a result, compliance with the treaty will not meaningfully diminish the lethal potential of either nation's nuclear force. Nor will the treaty establish an equitable or stable strategic balance, since Russia does not have the resources to safely maintain its nuclear forces at the size and alert rates envisaged by the United States. Over time, a deteriorating Russian arsenal will become increasingly vulnerable to preemptive attack, particularly as the United States undertakes planned modernization of nuclear forces and the deployment of missile defenses.
If this agreement were seriously expected to carry any burden whatsoever, it would not pass even the most rudimentary scrutiny....
NOTE: All illustrations and photos
have been removed from this article.
More articles from Daedalus
On a danger of deliberative democracy.(group polarization), September 22, 2002
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An argument about beauty.(Critical Essay), September 22, 2002
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