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Article Excerpt
Overview
Australian federal politics between July and December, 2002, maintained its largely external focus on security and foreign affairs. Such an emphasis was understandable given the terrorist attack on Australians and other nationals in Bali, and the ubiquitous prospect of Australia's participation in a looming war with Iraq. Against this backdrop, the Liberal-National (LNP) government continued to dominate the political and public agenda at the expense of an Australian Labor Party (ALP) opposition grappling with the twin dilemmas of executing internal structural reform and formulating foreign policy that was at once distinctive from the LNP while remaining acceptable to the Australian electorate. Domestic issues also emerged and much angst was felt over a slowing economy and a landscape plagued by drought. Party politics also saw significant developments, with a serious implosion occurring within the Australian Democrats, and the election of an Australian Greens candidate at the Cunningham by-election, the first minor party representative to be elected to the House of Representatives since the birth of the modern party system in 1910.
Party fortunes and public opinion
Coalition: In the wake of external security concerns and a floundering ALP opposition, the LNP coalition, and Prime Minister John Howard in particular, soared in public opinion. According to Newspoll (www.newspoll.com.au), as published in The Australian, the Coalition entered the period (5-7 July 2002) with 43 per cent approval. While this figure dipped to 41 per cent between late July and early September, support for the LNP recovered to a high of 47 per cent in the wake of the Bali bombings in mid-October. The period closed with approval for the government parties standing at 44 per cent (15 December 2002). John Howard enjoyed even more spectacular levels of support. Beginning the period with a satisfaction rating of 51 per cent, a dissatisfaction rating of 38 per cent, with 11 per cent uncommitted (5-7 July 2002), support for the Prime Minister peaked in early November at 65 per cent (1-3 November 2002). Howard closed the period with 58 per cent satisfied with his leadership, 33 per cent dissatisfied, and 9 per cent undecided (13-15 December 2002). Such robust figures gave rise to the question of the Prime Minister's future. In July, on his sixty-third birthday, Howard issued the clearest indication yet of his desire to remain in the Lodge, declaring himself "very fit" (Australian, 26 July 2002). Such an admission failed to thwart the strategy of Treasurer and heir-apparent, Peter Costello, who embarked in mid-August on yet another Queensland outback trek, replete with photo-opportunities, mid-August to boost his leadership credentials. It appears to have been in vain: a November Newspoll found that 66 per cent of Australians preferred Howard as Prime Minister to Costello's 16 per cent--a factor of almost four to one (Australian, 19 November 2002). The Liberals found less joy at state level, with the party enduring huge swings at the Tasmanian and Victorian elections in July and November respectively, Indeed, the Prime Minister's pique was hardly contained during the Victorian campaign when he made a rare public criticism of his state colleagues' performance (Bulletin, 26 November 2002). The National Party, by contrast, appeared all but invisible. Opening and closing the period with 5 per cent support, the Nationals collapsed to just 2 per cent in August, only to recover to 6 per cent--equal highest for the year--in October (www.newspoll.com.au). The Nationals' woes were no doubt compounded by public disagreements between their Queensland state and federal representatives over the future sale of Telstra (T3). When, in July, Senator Ron Boswell (Queensland) described T3 as "inevitable", his state colleagues rebelled (Australian, 15 July 2002). Only later did the Queensland branch formally acquiesce, on the proviso that a range of conditions be met, including improved internet and mobile phone connections for the bush.
ALP: The ALP opposition during the second half of 2002 failed to capture high public opinion ratings. Labor opened the period (5-7 July 2002) with 38 per cent support and, in late August, managed to level-peg the Coalition at 41 per cent, only the second time since the 2001 election that it had done so (www.newspoll.com.au). Such joy was short-lived, however: the ALP closed the year (13-15 December 2002) at 37 per cent with support eroding substantially from core constituencies, including among blue-collar voters and the 35-49 year age cohort (Weekend Australian, 21-22 December 2002; Australian, 31 December 2002). Questions as to Labor's structure, policy and leadership inevitably arose. To this end, the long-awaited thirty-two page Hawke-Wran report into...
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