Home | Business News | Browse by Publication | S | Searcher

Scenario planning as preventive medicine: the case of the unexpected takeover.

Article Excerpt
In a May 2009 Financial Times column, James E. Post noted, "The voice of change is ringing across the global economy. (1) (The cartoon by Roger Beale appeared with that column.) Information professionals reading this article may not need Post's warning to explain the increasing number of corporate (and other) library cutbacks, disruptions, and closures. Sad experience has taught us that, in times of economic disruption, libraries and the roles of information professionals in organizations come under incredible scrutiny; often totally disproportionate to their cost vis a vis their organization's operating budget and, conversely, almost always disproportionate to the value libraries and information professionals could contribute if retained and bolstered by their employers during these downturns.

[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]

[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]

Post intended his article as a call to business schools to heed the advice of Rahm Emanuel, chief of staff to U.S. President Barack Obama, "to never waste a crisis." Nonetheless, the three suggestions Post goes on to make (2) directly relate to the challenges facing information professionals in today's economy:

* Build scenarios for a post-crisis world

* Build for sustainability

* Promote new entrepreneurship

In suggesting scenario planning as a survival tool (which could easily incorporate the goal of sustainability and require some semblance of entrepreneurship), we propose a pragmatic way for managers of information services, looking into an uncertain future, to take advantage of the current crisis and create visions or, more specifically, a series of "plausible alternative futures," to help forecast "what core competencies their organization needs to develop for survival and competitive advantage." (3)

One of the most telling points Post makes, and one that we encourage all information professionals to internalize, is that "the management of risk has changed. Indeed, the mindset of risk versus reward is undergoing cataclysmic challenge." (4) Envisioning new possible futures reminds us that "the future's not set. There's no fate but what we make for ourselves." (5)

Myriad circumstances currently affect libraries and information professionals in corporate environments. Takeovers (along with other types of mergers, acquisitions, and sell-offs) usually have a profound effect on the parties' existing information services; often this results in redundancy layoffs, closures, consolidations, etc. In the case discussed here, following staff reductions, albeit voluntary, and with a new parent organization and new clients, what resulted was an opportunity for the IS manager to envision a new future.

There is no question that it can be difficult for any IS manager to take the time to participate in even a short exercise in scenario planning. We believe, however, that such "preventive medicine" can immunize IS from misalignment within an organization and ensure health and sustainability.

In many instances, the literature on scenario planning in libraries overlaps with that on strategic planning. Since not all strategic planning involves the use of scenarios, we encourage you to think of scenario planning as a different...

View this article FREE - Now for a Limited Time, try Goliath Business News
Free for 3 Days!