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Article Excerpt
Frozen food consumption in Europe will continue to gain over the next couple of years. But the engine of that growth won't likely be the new economies of the former Communist countries of Central Europe, but rather the established capitalist economies of Western Europe.
That's the assessment of Food for Thought (FFT), Geneva, Switzerland, which has issued projections for 2009, 2010 and 2011 as well as an analysis of the 2008 market for Western and Central European countries combined. That analysis shows a tonnage gain of only one percent to 12.534 million, but a euro increase of 7.4% to 62.418 billion.
The only category tonnage increases across Europe were in vegetables (up 1.4% to 2,770,700), fish (up a bare percentage point to 1,652,600), pizza (up 4.2% to 729,400) and ready meals (up 1.7% to 1,359,800). But euro value gains were much stronger, including 21.4% to 7,927 billion for pastry products, 18.7% to 11,490 billion for ready meals, 3.7% to 13,869 million for fish, and 2.8% to 8.261 billion for vegetables.
Although there were strong tonnage gains in Bulgaria, Romania and Slovakia, these were not enough to offset sharp losses in the Czech Republic and Poland. In Western Europe, by contrast, FFT recorded only slight setbacks for Germany and the United Kingdom, for which other sources report increases. Last year, moreover, was the second in a row for FFT to show losses for Poland and the Czech Republic.
Looking towards 2011, FFT sees frozen food and ice cream category increases across the board in euro volume for Western Europe (Austria, Belgium-Luxembourg, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland and the UK), whereas declines are forecast for potato products, ice cream and soup in Central Europe (Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia).
What gains FFT does project for Central Europe are generally weaker than for Western Europe. The only exception is convenience meats, for which the market research firm foresees an average annual increase of 2.5%, versus 1.2% for Western Europe. But Central European countries are starting from a very small base. Per capita consumption across Europe averages 25.5 kilograms, with Sweden leading the pack at 51.6 and Ireland and Norway close behind at 49.6 and 48.3. Hungary, the top-ranked Central European country, can boast only 16.5. Poland's consumption is just 8.2 kilograms per capita, and Romania's 2.3.
Western European countries, or at least their trade associations, take more pride in their frozen food industries. "Frozen Retail Market Storms Ahead" ran the headline for a press release issued last winter by the British Frozen Food Federation (BFFF), which heralded "10 consecutive quarters of accelerating growth," including the 52 weeks which ended on Jan. 25--a period for which Food for Thought had found a slight loss in tonnage--as reported by research firm TNS Worldpanel.
The gain reported by the BFFF was only one percent, but sterling value jumped 6.7%. Retail volume was put at 1,987,602 tons altogether and value at 4,939,240,000 [pounds sterling]. The BFFF was putting the best face on things, because four of the nine categories it listed showed tonnage losses, although there were strong gains for fish (5.2% to 123,700), potato products (5.3% to 458,115) and savory food (6.6% to 266,665). Savory food also led in sterling gain, at 10.3% to 867,337,000 [pounds sterling]; followed by vegetables, at 10.1% to 388,670,000 [pounds sterling].
Since then, the BFFF has had more good news: for the 52 weeks ended June 14, retail sales cracked the five-billion-pound barrier, at 5,097,301,000 [pounds sterling], up 6.3%. Sterling growth was strong in every category but ice cream, and savory foods again led the pack with an 11.2% increase, to 916,304,000 [pounds sterling]. Overall tonnage, at 2,016,122, was up only 0.2%, however.
Complete foodservice statistics for 2008 are due next month; data for 2007, released last November by Horizons FS, showed sales of 2.290 [pounds sterling] billion in that sector, up 2.8% from 2006. But early indications are that the recession has taken its toll. Restaurant frozen food sales for 2008 were off 0.4% to 1.136 billion [pounds sterling] with full service restaurant volume down 3.6% to 161 million [pounds sterling] (Quick service outlets gained 0.1% to 975 million [pounds sterling].). Another report showed...
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