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Facing a future of change: wild migratory caribou and reindeer.

Article Excerpt
Migratory wild reindeer and caribou numbers have dropped by about one-third since populations peaked in the 1990s and early 2000s. Four of five major herds in Russia and one of two herds in Greenland are declining. Several large Canadian herds monitored sufficiently to measure abundance trends have declined by 75-90%, and the declines have recently accelerated. For example, the Bathurst herd has declined from over 450000 caribou in 1986 to fewer than 50000 in 2009. The Beverly herd, one of Canada's best-known herds, had 270000 caribou in 1994, but fewer than 10.0 breeding cows in 2009. Farther west in Alaska, the large Western Arctic and Porcupine herds are also declining.

Some herds, however, are not declining. East of Hudson's Bay, the George River and Leaf River herds total close to one million animals. The George River herd peaked early (~1992), while the Leaf River herd was still increasing at the last count, in 2002. On Alaska's Arctic coast, the Teshekpuk Lake and Central Arctic herds are still growing at an average rate of 7% per annum (both populations were last estimated in 2008). In Norway and Finland, where herds are small, wild reindeer are stable or increasing.

Historically, migratory tundra caribou herds have undergone well-defined and largely synchronous periods of abundance and scarcity, likely driven by continental climate switches such as the Arctic Oscillation. Populations that were almost universally low in the late 1960s and early 1970s increased to peak levels in the late 1980s and throughout the 1990s. Prior to the population lows in the late 1960s, aboriginal elders spoke of earlier periods of abundance and scarcity, and with scarcity, of human hardship and starvation. The variability in timing of population peaks is undoubtedly related to the timing and severity of nutritional and ecological bottlenecks for each herd and to the heterogeneous nature of climate impact on the range conditions of those herds.

Across their circumpolar ranges, many herds are being exposed more frequently to industrial exploration and development, leading to concerns about the cumulative effects of such exposure. For example, caribou change their habitat use in the vicinity of roads, oilfields, and mines. Additionally, a shift to wage earning in user communities can affect harvest levels by increasing the demand for caribou meat. Increased income allows harvesters more choice in harvesting methods, such as taking advantage of winter and all-season roads, and technological advances allow caribou to be located more easily. The post-calving ranges of the Beverly herd have recently seen a boom in uranium exploration, raising strong concerns about the effects of those activities on caribou abundance. In the 1990s, high levels of exploration for diamonds on the...

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