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MEXICO'S APRIL-JUNE ECONOMIC DECLINE LARGEST QUARTERLY CONTRACTION IN 25 YEARS.

Publication: SourceMex Economic News & Analysis on Mexico
Publication Date: 02-SEP-09
Format: Online
Delivery: Immediate Online Access

Article Excerpt
The news that Mexico's economy experienced its greatest decline in 25 years during the second quarter of 2009 coincided with similar depressing reports that remittances from expatriates were down about 18% during that same period. In late August, the government's statistics agency (Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas, Geografia e Informatica, INEGI) reported that Mexico experienced a contraction of 10.3% in GDP in April-June, battered by a severe slowdown in exports to the US and the decline in economic activity resulting from the outbreak of the H1N1 virus. On top of that came the sharp drop in remittances, one of the country's top-three sources of foreign exchange.

There are some predictions that remittances will decline by 15% this year.

Manufacturing, services lead decline

In its report for the second quarter, INEGI said the most significant declines occurred in secondary and tertiary activities. Secondary activities--which include mining, construction, utilities, and manufacturing--experienced an 11.5% decline. Construction, considered an engine of economic growth, saw a contraction of 9.2%.

The GDP for tertiary activities--which include services like real estate, transportation, retail sales, education, and tourism--fell by 10.4%. These sectors were hit especially hard by the H1N1 virus outbreak in March and April (see SourceMex, 2009-04-29 and 2009-05-06). GDP for the retail sector--another bellwether of economic activity--contracted by 20.9% during the quarter. Similarly, tourism and the restaurant sector declined by 17.3%. The transportation and warehousing industries, also included in the tertiary category, declined by more than 13%.

One of the few areas of growth was in so-called primary activities such as agriculture and forestry, which expanded...

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