|
Article Excerpt
IN BRIEF
Editor's Choice
*** VTB Capital has lowered its 2009 GDP forecast for Russia to negative 4.2%, the company's analysts Alexandra Yeftiyeva and Dmitry Fedotkin said in a note. VTB Capital previously predicted the Russian economy would decline by 1.6% in 2009. It has also revised its GDP growth forecast for 2010, from 3% to 1.7%.
*** Russian gold miner OJSC Vysochaishy (GV Gold) could boost 2008 dividends 86%. The company said its board had recommended 237.01 million rubles or just over 20% of net profit for 2008 be set aside for dividends. The company paid 126.995 million rubles for 2007. GV Gold completed a share split at a ratio of 1:10, intended to optimize capital structure and corporate governance, at the beginning of this year. It converted 5.209 million ordinary shares, par value 0.02 rubles each, into 52.09 million ordinary shares, par value 0.002 rubles. The split shares were distributed among shareholders on a pro-rata basis.
*** Directors at the Mechel coal and steel group are recommending dividends of 5.53 rubles per ordinary share and 50.55 rubles on preferred shares for 2008, the company said in a statement on June 2. The dividends will be put to the vote at the AGM on June 30. Shareholders on record as of June 4 will be entitled to vote. The dividend payment would total 2.302 billion rubles (approximately $75 million) on ordinary shares and 7.014 billion rubles (over $228 million) on preferred shares.
*** The board of directors of Siberian Coal Energy Company (SUEK) has recommended that shareholders waive dividends for 2008 in view of the net loss for the year, the company said in materials. The annual shareholders' meeting is scheduled for June 30. The register of shareholders closes on May 29.
*** China's decision to launch an anti-dumping probe into imports of Russian grain-oriented transformer steel are an attempt to safeguard national interests, but could also be a retaliatory measure against a Russian decision to limit imports of Chinese pipes, Russia's trade representative in China, Sergei Tsyplakov, told Interfax on June 2. "The probe is designed to protect the domestic Chinese market for ferrous metals and the interests of Chinese producers, who are going through a fairly difficult period," Tsyplakov said.
*** Igor Zyuzin, general director of the Mechel Group), Vitaly Savelyev, head of Aeroflot and Dmitry Strezhnev, head of OJSC EuroChem, have been admitted to the Economic Development Ministry's council on foreign economic activity. Economic Development Minister Elvira Nabiullina signed the necessary order (N184) for admitting Savelyev, Strezhnev and Zyuzin to the council on May 25. The council also includes Andrei Dementiev, Deputy Industry and Trade Minister, the deputy head of the Federal Customs Service (FCS), Konstantin Chaika, First Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Denisov and Andrei Slepnev, who was recently appointed Deputy Economic Development Minister.
FORECAST
VTB Capital lowers 2009 Russian GDP forecast to neg 4.2%
MOSCOW. (Interfax) - VTB Capital has lowered its 2009 GDP forecast for Russia to negative 4.2%, the company's analysts Alexandra Yeftiyeva and Dmitry Fedotkin said in a note.
VTB Capital previously predicted the Russian economy would decline by 1.6% in 2009.
It has also revised its GDP growth forecast for 2010, from 3% to 1.7%.
The analysts said the last three months had been successful for Russia, with equilibrium being achieved in the currency market and oil going up in price. This stabilization could be a turning point for economic recovery. "VTB Capital is lowering its 2009 GDP forecast to decline of 4.2%, but notes that a range of factors are capable of producing a better result," they said.
The analysts say GDP fell 9.5% in Q1 2009 due to a sharp drop in inventory and a temporary drop in gas exports.
But there's a strong likelihood that manufacturers will start to build stockpiles back up again as demand stabilizes, which is expected to start in the second quarter due to signs of a slowdown in unemployment growth and a probable cut in interest rates and inflation.
"Inflation started to slow in April and the Central Bank lowered its rates for the first time since February 2008. We believe that the tight monetary policy pursed until recently and the gap between actual and potential GDP growth will contribute to a further slowdown in inflation. Moreover the CB and Finance Ministry possess the tools necessary to sterilize any surplus of cash resulting from the fiscal deficit," the analysts say.
The stronger ruble will not undermine the budget to a great extent as the Finance Ministry has already converted 40% of the funds it plans to transfer from the Reserve Fund into rubles, they say.
The analysts said they thought the Central Bank was happy with the ruble's temporary appreciation as it means members of the public will probably start to convert their savings from foreign exchange into rubles, which will bolster funding for banks and lower the cost of that funding thanks to lower ruble deposit rates.
FORECAST
Russian industry likely to fall 13.1% in May - analysts
MOSCOW. (Interfax) - Russian industrial output is likely to fall 13.1% in May and inflation could be 0.7%, analysts from leading investment companies, banks and analytical centers told Interfax in their month-end consensus forecast.
The Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) caught many analysts off guard when its figures for April suggested that the recession was not yet bottoming out.
Its figures did suggest the slump was slowing down, and that bottom could be reached in a month or two. June will be more telling, because May had fewer working days due to the state holidays.
Inflation might have slowed in April-May, but this also pointed to narrowing internal demand, primarily from consumers: decline in the retail sector, the driving force of the economy until late last year, accelerated to 5.3% in April, from 4.0% in May.
The fact that the economy does not yet appear to have bottomed out and that the government's anti-crisis measures have not yet started to take effect in earnest is prompting economists to lower their full-year forecasts except for inflation, which they expect to meet the official target of 13%.
Consensus forecast of macroeconomic indicators for May and full-year 2009 and 2010
[TABLE OMITTED]
*) official Russian Economic Development Ministry forecast for 2009, approved by government in middle of March
**) latest preliminary forecasts by the Russian Economic Development Ministry: government due to approve adjusted forecast at end of June-early July.
Analysts from ING Bank, Renaissance Capital, UralSib, BDO Unicon, Trust Bank, UniCredit Bank, Institute for Transition Period Economics and Economic Expert Group took part in the consensus forecast.
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold producer Vysochaishy could boost dividends nearly 90%
MOSCOW. (Interfax) - Russian gold miner OJSC Vysochaishy (GV Gold) could boost 2008 dividends 86%.
The company said its board had recommended 237.01 million rubles or just over 20% of net profit for 2008 be set aside for dividends. The company paid 126.995 million rubles for 2007.
GV Gold completed a share split at a ratio of 1:10, intended to optimize capital structure and corporate governance, at the beginning of this year. It converted 5.209 million ordinary shares, par value 0.02 rubles each, into 52.09 million ordinary shares, par value 0.002 rubles. The split shares were distributed among shareholders on a pro-rata basis.
The dividend per share could therefore be 4.55 rubles for 2008, compared with 24.38 rubles for 2007.
The AGM is scheduled for June 30.
GV Gold's gold mining assets are located in the Irkutsk and Amur regions, Yakutia and Komi. Gold production soared 28.3% to 4 tonnes in 2008 and is scheduled to rise to 4.2 tonnes this year.
Private individuals, the company Brishurt and the Blackrock group of companies own shares in GV Gold.
PRECIOUS METALS
Polymetal mulls secondary share placement
MOSCOW. (Interfax) - Polymetal, Russia biggest silver producer, is considering the possibility of a secondary share placement, the company told Interfax on MayAa29.
Polymetal is currently planning an additional share issue and is considering placing them on the market among portfolio investors to raise funds, a company spokesman said without specifying the possibly date of size of the placement.
It was reported earlier that Polymetal shareholders on June 19 are to discuss an increase in the company's charter capital by 84.375 million shares that would be placed in a private subscription. The board of directors has proposed placing 7.5 million shares to consolidate a 100% stake in Artel Ayax, a company holding the mining license for the Goltsovoye silver deposit and 10 million shares to acquire Rudnik Kvartsevyi, a Russian company holding the mining license for the Sopka Kvartsevaya. The board proposed placing the remaining 66.875 million shares in favor of subsidiary Polymetal Management Company as well as among shareholders as part of their preemptive buyout rights.
The spokesman said that the shares acquired by Polymetal Management Company during the additional placement could subsequently be sold to the market. Polymetal plans to submit documents to register the issue with the Federal Financial Markets Service before the end of June and complete the placement...
|
