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Article Excerpt
Rough estimates
How large is the Finnish drug market? About the only measure available for estimating the volume of drug flows has been the data on drug seizures. A frequently voiced opinion is that drug seizures represent five to ten percent of substance traded in the market (Partanen 2002, p. 32). In fact, however, there is very little information on the relationship between seizures and the market. The figure would mainly seem to be an official estimate originating from international arenas and has also been used in many countries for a very long time and ignores difference across countries and time (Albrecht & Kalmthout 1989, p. 437).
Attempts have been made in international studies to estimate the size of the drug market by making calculations of both drug supply and demand. A wide variety of data sources have been used as a basis for the calculations, ranging from satellite photos of drug plantation sizes to research data on drug users, as well as information obtained from arrestees and statistics on people seeking treatment. Data on the purity or prices of seized substances have been used as measures in describing changes in the drug market. (See e.g. Wagstaff & Maynard 1984; Wagstaff 1989; Bramley-Harker 2001; What America's ... 2001; Drug Availability ... 2002; Wilkins, Bhatta & Casswell 2002; United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime [UNODC] 2006.) In some studies, seizure figures have been compared with amounts of substances available on the market. Wagstaff and Maynard (1988) estimate that in 1984 customs authorities managed to seize 9 to 19 percent of the heroin trafficked to Great Britain. At about the same time it was estimated in the United States that seizures correspond to 14 to 20 percent of the cocaine market and to 10 to 27 percent of the cannabis market (Polich, Erikson, Reuter & Kalion, 1984, op. cit. Wagstaff & Maynard, 1988, p. 53). In New Zealand, Wilkins et al. 2002 estimated that the seizure rate achieved by cannabis crop eradication operations in 1998 was 26-31 percent.
In this article we estimate the size of the Finnish cannabis market using demand data. We selected cannabis for the analysis as it is the overwhelmingly most popular substance in the relatively small Finnish drug market, therefore allowing the most reliable estimates to be presented on the extent of its use. We combine several data sources. The number of users is based on population survey data (Hakkarainen & Metso, 2005) and register-based estimates of the number of problem users (Partanen, Hakkarainen, Holmstrom, Kinnunen, Leinikki, Partanen et al. 2004). To classify consumption among different user groups, we use qualitative studies of drug users and drug-use patterns (Hakkarainen, 1987; Kinnunen, 1990; Perala 2002a, 2002b; Salasuo, 2004; Seppala & Mikkola, 2004; Kekoni, 2007). This allows us to produce estimates of the amounts of cannabis consumed in a year by users of varying intensity. We shall begin with a description of the cannabis market in Finland.
Market growth
Cannabis use spread into Finland with the so-called first drug wave in the 1960s, gaining popularity among young people in particular (Hakkarainen, 1992; Salasuo, 2004). The authorities gradually took a more resolute stand in regard to the situation, and in the capital Helsinki a specialized drug squad was set up within the Police Department in 1967. The first trafficking case was uncovered in Helsinki in 1968 and resulted in the seizure of one kilogram of cannabis. By the standards of that time, the case was considered to be of major significance. (Koskinen 1997, pp. 47-49.)
In the 1970s, cannabis was usually imported; the sellers were also users themselves. It was sold in small quantities or given free of charge. In the early part of the decade, retail sales still took place in well known public places; trading later became more cautious with the more stringent control. The drug situation remained relatively stable throughout the 1980s (Hakkarainen 1992, pp. 72-75; Salasuo 2004, pp. 92-93.)
The second drug wave hit Finland in the 1990s, especially in the second half of the decade (Partanen & Metso, 1999), a phenomenon reported in many other countries (MacCoun & Reuter, 2001). Like the first wave, the second was an international phenomenon, made possible by, among other things, the organization of international drug production and trade (Partanen, 2002, p. 23). Drug use doubled in Finland. At the same time, a wider range of drugs became available, but cannabis remained the most popular substance. (Hakkarainen & Metso, 2005.) In all, cannabis is rather easily available in Finland today. Research shows that, in recent years, some 15 percent of 15-34 year olds have been offered drugs for purchase or free of charge. In the greater Helsinki area the supply is higher than in other parts of the country. (Natunen, Jallinoja, Helakorpi, & Uutela, 2006.)
Increased domestic cultivation
While the cannabis consumed in Europe has traditionally been imported, the last decade has seen a steep increase in domestic cultivation (Hough, Warburton, Few, May, Man, Witton, & Turnbull, 2003; Decorte, 2007). It has been estimated that domestic cultivation already accounts for more than half of the cannabis consumed in Holland, a country with the highest prevalence of indoor cannabis cultivation. In most European countries, however, imported cannabis is still more common than the domestic product European Monitoring Centre tot Drugs and Addiction [EMCDDA] 2004). The Finnish cannabis market is dominated by imported hashish but in recent years there have been clear signs of an increase in home cultivation (Kainulainen, 2006). This trend is supported by a great deal of information on cannabis cultivation available on the Internet. For example, a Finnish case in point: the guidebook Hullu puutatrhuri--Koristehampun kasvatusopas [A crazy gardener --A guide to growing ornamental hemp], downloadable over the Internet since 1996, provides detailed instructions for the home growing of cannabis.
Seized drugs
Drug market trends are often assessed using annual seizure data. Such an analysis reveals a growth in the drug market since the mid-1990s, showing a noticeable increase in substance amounts seized by the police and customs authorities (Kainulainen, 2007). This also applies specifically to cannabis, seizures rose five-fold over the past 15 years. In 2001-2005, cannabis seizures annually amounted to an average of 500 kilograms as seen in table 1.
Most of the cannabis seized in Finland is hashish, the share of marijuana being quite marginal. However, in recent years, a total of some 8,000 to 9,000 cannabis plants have been seized annually, and the number has been on the increase. Hashish seizures have been decreasing while plants and marijuana seizures are rising; the market may be increasingly herbal.
Not all seized drugs are...
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