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NEW PROJECTIONS FORESEE CONTRACTION OF 7% OR MORE IN MEXICAN ECONOMY IN 2009.

Article Excerpt
There is nothing to dispute projections that Mexico's economy is going to contract in 2009, although there is uncertainty about how deep the GDP decline will go. The latest official forecast from President Felipe Calderon's administration is that Mexico's GDP will contract by 5.5% this year (see SourceMex, 2009-05-20), but many private analysts and multilateral institutions believe that the decline will be deeper than that. The latest international projection came from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), which anticipates a 7% contraction in GDP.

In its report released in mid-July, ECLAC said the forecast of a 7% contraction in Mexico's GDP this year is the worst for Latin America. The organization projected a 1.9% contraction for the region as a whole, with other large economies also expected to remain sluggish this year.

Argentina is projected to have a 1.5% GDP growth and Brazil a contraction of 0.8%.

ECLAC's 2009 projections for Mexico are on par with recent forecasts...

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