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Article Excerpt
Abstract
This paper provides an estimate of the effects of Hurricane Katrina on the population of 20 selected zip code areas in Hancock, Harrison and Jackson counties, Mississippi, that were at or near the epicenter of Hurricane Katrina. The effects are examined by using 1990 and 2000 census data, information from a special data collection funded by the National Science Foundation, and special county-level "Katrina impact" 2006 population estimates prepared by the U. S. Census Bureau. The Cohort Change Ratio Method is applied to 1990 and 2000 census data to generate 2007 population estimates in the absence of Katrina. These estimates are then adjusted to take Katrina's effects into account. By comparing the adjusted to the unadjusted estimates an idea of the absolute and relative impact of Katrina is gained. The comparison suggests that Katrina's demographic effects are profound and not only likely to affect the 2010 census counts in these areas, but that they may persist well beyond. Given the long-lasting demographic effects of such disasters, I suggest that these methods be used in the future and provide specific recommendations on how this can be accomplished
Introduction
As noted by Chappell et al. (2007: 344), the landfall of Hurricane Katrina on the Gulf Coast on August 29th, 2005 represented the greatest natural disaster in American history. The geographic spread of the disaster stretched 90,000 square miles, roughly the size of Great Britain. In human terms, at least 1,836 people lost their lives from Katrina while only 65 did so due to Hurricane Andrew in August of 1992 and 265 from Hurricane Camille in August of 1969 (Chappell et al., 2007: 344). Swanson et al. (2007) note that while the preceding numbers are staggering and likely in the general ballpark, they are only estimates and because of the ephemeral nature of the data and the high costs, it is not surprising that estimates rather than complete counts are made in regard to the damage from hurricanes and other large scale disasters. Unfortunately, many of these estimates are not informed by on-the-ground research, one exception to this being those developed by Swanson et al. (2007).
This paper extends the work of Swanson et al. (2007) by providing estimates of the effect of Hurricane Katrina on the populations of 20 selected zip code areas of Hancock, Harrison and Jackson counties, Mississippi. These zip codes are of interest for two reasons. First, zip codes are used by many private and public sector entities for planning (Pol and Thomas, 1997, 2000; Siegel, 2002; Thomas, 2005); and second, these 20 zip codes were at or near the epicenter of Hurricane Katrina in that they cover the Mississippi Gulf Coast from Alabama to Louisiana in an area extending north from the Gulf Coast approximately 15 miles. The general dimensions of the study area are provided in Exhibit 1.
[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]
The demographic effects of Katrina are examined on populations in of each of the twenty zip codes displayed by county in Exhibit 2
EXHIBIT 2. ZIP CODES CONTAINED IN THE STUDY BY COUNTY
HANCOCK
39520
39525
39556
39572
39576
JACKSON
39562
39564
39565
39567
39581
HARRISON
39501
39503
39507
39530
39531
39532
39540
39560
39571
39574
THE DEMOGRAPHIC EFFECTS OF KATRINA
The examination of the demographic effects of Katrina starts by using 1990 and 2000 census data to develop "Cohort Change Ratios" (Smith, Tayman, and Swanson, 2001: 127-128), which are then used to project the 2000 populations by age and sex to form a set of 2007 population estimates in the absence of Katrina. These estimates are then adjusted to develop 2007 population estimates that account for the effects of Hurricane Katrina. The adjustments are accomplished using either one of two data sets: (1) a special census conducted under the auspices of a study funded by the National Science Foundation (Swanson et al., 2007); or (2) special "2006 Katrina-impacted estimates" done by the U. S. Census Bureau for counties (2006). A more complete description of these data and the methods are described later.
Table 1 provides the estimated population in 2007 of the five zip codes in Hancock County by age and sex as affected by Hurricane Katrina. Tables 2 and 3 provide this same information for the ten zip codes in Harrison County and the five zip codes in Jackson County, respectively. Tables 4, 5, and 6 provide 2007 estimates of these same populations by age and sex in the absence of Hurricane Katrina.
Table 1. The Estimated Katrina-impacted 2007 Populations by Age and Sex for the Five Zip codes in Hancock County. KATRINA IMPACT: HANCOCK COUNTY ZIPCODES 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 SEX & AGE 39520 39525 39558 39572 39576 TOTAL SEX & AGE GROUP GROUP m0_4 618 294 233 48 75 1,268 m0_4 m5_9 647 129 213 40 72 1,101 m5_9 m10_14 722 269 256 46 72 1,365 m10_14 m15_19 654 287 252 48 72 1,313 m15_19 m20_24 487 101 175 34 44 841 m20_24 m25_29 503 174 196 35 58 966 m25_29 m30_34 582 180 185 37 55 1,040 m30_34 m35_39 714 272 240 47 66 1,340 m35_39 m40_44 737 280 258 58 69 1,402 m40_44 m45_49 801 344 253 61 65 1,525 m45_49 m50_54 933 334 230 71 77 1,845 m50_54 m55_59 772 289 214 82 66 1,423 m55_59 m60_64 657 407 152 68 62 1.346 m60_64 m65_69 533 270 140 42 50 1,035 m65_69 m70_74 348 251 79 32 32 743 m70_74 m75_79 210 165 48 22 24 468 m75_79 m80_84 135 87 13 14 11 261 m80_84 m85ovr 84 85 14 9 11 204 m85ovr f0_4 575 195 224 50 71 1,114 f0_4 f5_9 593 154 211 44 70 1,071 f5_9 f10_14 658 250 237 51 69 1,265 f10_14 f15_19 614 263 216 46 68 1,207 f15_19 f20_24 512 126 224 37 53 952 f20_24 f25_29 566 230 139 36 70 1,092 f25_29 f30_34 587 225 239 37 65 1,153 f30_34 f35_39 685 252 243 45 68 1,293 f35_39 f40_44 700 333 237 52 77 1,399 f40_44 f45_49 857 335 240 62 89 1,583 f45_49 f50_54 855 394 198 56 100 1,603 f50_54 f55_59 736 383 197 81 89 1,485 f55_59 f60_64 707 372 147 55 71 1,352 f60_64 f65_69 493 319 105 48 52 1,018 f65_69 f70_74 348 256 75 22 44 744 f70_74 f75_79 262 160 52 20 26 520 f75_79 f80_84 186 161 25 12 21 406 f80_84 f85ovr 198 144 21 7 18 388 f85ovr PO_4 1,192 489 457 97 147 2,382 P0_4 P5_9 1,240 283 414 84 142 2,172 P5_9 P10_14 1,380 519 493 97 142 2,631 P10_14 P15_19 1,269 550 468 71 140 2,520 P15_19 P20_24 999 227 399 71 97 1,794 P20_24 P25_29 1,069 405 385 71 129 2,058 P25_29 P30_34 1,169 405 425 75 120 2,193 P30_34 P35_39 1,399 525 483 93 133 2,633 P35_39 P40_44 1,437 613 495 110 146 2,800 P40_44 P45_49 1,658 680 493 123 154 3,108 P45_49 P50_54 1,788 729 428 127 177 3,248 P50_54 P55_59 1,507 672 411 163 155 2,908 P55_59 P60_64 1,365 799 299 123 132 2,698 P60_64 P65_69 1,026 589 245 90 103 2,053 P65_69 P70_74 696 507 153 54 76 1,486 P70_74 P75_79 473 325 100 41 49 988 P75_79 P80_84 321 248 39 26 32 667 P80_84 P85ovr 283 229 35 16 29 592 P85ovr TOTAL 20,270 8,773 6,231 1,554 2,103 38,931 TOTAL POP 55+ 5,670 3,350 1,283 514 577 11,393 POP 55+ POP 65+ 2,798 1,898 573 228 289 5,786 POP 65+ ZIPCODE 39520 39525 39556 39572 39576 TOTAL ZIPCODE Table 2. The Estimated Katrina-impacted 2007 Populations by Age and Sex for the Ten Zip codes in Harrison County. HAMSON COUNTY ZIPCODES 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 SEX & AGE 39501 39503 39507 39530 39531 39532 39540 GROUP m0_4 798 1,362 532 533 648 808 251 m5_9 662 1,345 475 388 568 788 252 m10_14 675 1,315 481 285 467 863 273 m15_19 971 1,252 516 849 491 974 245 m20_24 1,117 1,126 653 938 653 647 234 m25_29 816 1,282 665 451 766 692 263 m30_34 773 1,503 557 392 613 855 260 m35_39 679 1,365 580 346 604 869 282 m40_44 571 1,381 540 366 514 939 249 m45_49 688 1,399 586 426 579 1,062 273 m50_54 644 1,220 591 418 486 921 220 m65_56 567 924 454 368 409 729 174 m60_64 510 764 401 273 383 605 154 m65_69 329 561 289 228 236 443 102 m70_74 238 383...
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