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The future of Mr Kevin Rudd.

Article Excerpt
Eleven months (at the time of writing) into his prime ministership, what are we to say of Mr Kevin Rudd's performance? Given that performance, what of his future?

In what follows I argue that with (as always) some qualifications, the performance of the Rudd Government generally, and Mr Rudd in particular, has been potentially highly damaging to Australia. So much so, that I have been saying to my family and numerous friends for at least six months that Mr Rudd will not lead Labor to the next election.

Rumours circulating in Canberra in early 2008 to the effect that Mr Rudd was now bent on becoming the next Secretary-General of the United Nations were of course just that--rumours. If he did harbour that ambition, it would go far towards explaining much that has otherwise been inexplicable in his behaviour. Occam's Razor, however, suggests a simpler explanation: Mr Rudd appears to suffer from a serious personality flaw--one might almost call it a disorder--of a kind, and an intensity, which should disqualify him from occupying the most powerful office in the land.

These are big issues. Within the space available, therefore, I first say something about Mr Rudd personally and his ascent to the Lodge. I then consider some "tests" by which we might judge the government's real character, including that of the man who led it to office in November 2007. Against the background of its Howard Government inheritance, I then look at Labor's performance to date--initially in the lead-up to its first Budget on 13 May, and then subsequent to that.

During that latter period, federal politics were focused on two major issues. On the one hand, the deteriorating economic situation had begun to eat away at business confidence and voter contentment. On the other hand, the Opposition's problems--the weak leadership of Dr Brendan Nelson, the still smouldering embers of Mr Peter Costello's career, and the ever burning ambitions of Mr Malcolm Turnbull--provided the government (and its still faithful Canberra press gallery friends) with such a wealth of opportunity for diversionary distractions that its own policy performance could, and did, go largely unexamined.

Nevertheless, even during this "phoney war" period, signs were emerging that, within Labor's heartlands, all was not well. Despite the more recent drama associated with international and domestic financial market turmoil, that remains the case. We now have a re-invigorated--albeit still divided--Opposition, an economy sliding towards recession, a budgetary situation deteriorating rapidly, and an increasingly clear contradiction between what the government says and what it does. Against that background, I venture the opinion that the seasonal holiday period will be marked by growing (though still largely private) discussion among Labor's own parliamentary and extra-parliamentary ranks about their current leadership. That brings me back to my initial prediction--and perhaps, even, to that early rumour. But first, some background.

Mr Rudd's ascent to office

Prior to his election in 1998, Mr Rudd's career had been largely bureaucratic--first, within the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (1981-88), next as chief of staff to Wayne Goss (1988-91) in his capacities initially as Leader of the Opposition in the Queensland Parliament and then as Premier, and finally as Director-General of the Goss Government's Office of the Cabinet (1991-95). Until very shortly before his election as Leader of the Opposition in late 2006, few would have marked him out as anything more than a likely Minister for Foreign Affairs in some future Labor government--a kind of latter-day reincarnation of Gareth Evans.

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