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Steel won't feel construction stimulus until 2010: economist: federal spending will shorten the recession, but real recovery for the construction sector won't take hold until 2010 and beyond, says one leading forecaster.

Publication: Metal Center News
Publication Date: 01-MAR-09 		Format: Online
Delivery: Immediate Online Access
Full Article Title: Steel won't feel construction stimulus until 2010: economist: federal spending will shorten the recession, but real recovery for the construction sector won't take hold until 2010 and beyond, says one leading forecaster.(MCSI CARBON CONFERENCE)

Article Excerpt
AFTER LISTENING TO ECONOMISTS deliver a trio of troubling forecasts, attendees of the Metals Service Center Institute's Carbon Conference last month in Austin, Texas, hoped Edward Sullivan's infrastructure session would offer more heartening news. Unfortunately, not really.

Based on his analysis of the just-released federal stimulus bill, Sullivan suggested it will be 2010 before metals suppliers to the construction market see significant stimulus-related increases to their businesses.

Sullivan is chief economist of the Portland Cement Association and is one of the leading forecasters for the construction industry. He broke down the stimulus package and its effect on the infrastructure market for the entire construction industry, including metals suppliers.

Economists consider the size of the stimulus, its details, its presumed effectiveness and its timing, but don't always give enough weight to the underlying economic fundamentals, Sullivan said. "People are taking these assessments and overlaying them on top of their 2008 performance to come up with a metals volume forecast....

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