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Iraq outlook 2008.

Publication: Foreign Policy in Focus
Publication Date: 09-JAN-08
Format: Online
Delivery: Immediate Online Access

Article Excerpt
January 10th marks the one year anniversary of Bush's "surge" strategy. Many analysts are now claiming the "surge" is a success, but with no end in sight to the war, the year of the "surge" really is a tale of two Iraqs. Coming off a very deadly end to 2006, the first half of 2007 brought some of the highest levels of violence and displacement since the war began. But by the middle of the year, the level of violence reportedly began to drop, with December being the second least violent for U.S. troops since 2003. But the current calm has been crafted on a foundation that can topple at any moment, leaving its "success" in doubt.

Iraq Today

The dominant story in Iraq is the downward trend in casualties for both Iraqis and U.S. soldiers. The single-minded focus on casualties however, masks the internal problems in Iraq that could cause the violence to rise to new heights this year. Much of the decrease in violence is a result of the United States cutting deals with Sunni insurgents. The United States now has 70,000 "former" insurgents on its payroll. At the same time, the U.S. military continues to recruit and train members of the Iraqi military and police--agencies heavily dominated by Shiites. Arming and training these two groups has quelled the violence in the short term but makes the chances of future fighting between the groups to be...

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