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Burning the ships? Iran and the United States.

Article Excerpt
As the United States continues to move toward confrontation on the issue of Iran's nuclear program by attempting to link potential cooperation on Iraq and Afghanistan with the immediate cessation of nuclear enrichment, the irony is that America has thus systematically forced Iran into a corner, from which it is only likely to emerge armed with a nuclear warhead--turning what is considered by many a nightmare scenario into a reality.

In the Art of Warfare, Sun-Tzu advises: "In surrounding the enemy, leave him a way out; do not press an enemy that is cornered." (1) While arguably not the most advisable approach to waging total war, Sun-Tzu's phrase does echo the ultimate negotiation technique--paint yourself into a corner and thus you have no option but to win. Legend contends that in his campaign of Mexico, conquistador Hernandez Cortes burned his ships upon reaching the shore, forcing his troops to forget the thought of ever returning home and thus remain fiercely loyal to their commander to the bitter end. It worked, as Cortes' badly outnumbered forces (with the help of local peoples) defeated the Aztec Empire and solidified Spanish rule over the new colony.

Today, as Iran pushes deeper into nuclear territory, both the Islamic Republic and its declared arch nemesis, the United States, seem to have taken from the playbook of no return, essentially burning the ships behind them.

Leaving no room for ambiguity, President Bush has declared before the American people and the international community that Iran "shall not have the means, the knowledge to develop a nuclear weapon." (2) At the same time, Iraq fatigue has affected the president's ability to maintain this position. At the end of 2006, only 40 percent of Americans believed that Iran could be stopped from getting nuclear weapons. (3) In stark contrast, the nuclear issue inside Iran is nothing short of a call to patriotism--bridging gaps of political affiliation, age, and gender. Nuclear energy is a matter of national pride, making its abandonment a tricky issue for even the most accommodating of Iranian politicians. Needless to say, having two adversaries painting themselves into a corner makes diplomacy all the more tricky, and minimizes the likelihood of forging a peaceful settlement.

Officially, the debate in Iran carefully remains in the realm of nuclear energy for "peaceful purposes." Because of Iran's overwhelming domestic energy subsidies, it only exports around 40 percent of its oil. Domestic consumption is anything but frugal, as the cost of a liter of gasoline hovers around nine U.S. cents (or thirty-four U.S. cents per gallon). (4) It is not a stretch to consider peaceful nuclear energy as a realistic goal of nuclear development, and the Iranian regime is quick to point to the hard numbers in justifying its program. But Iran's troubled neighborhood has led many to believe that a parallel and equally compelling need for going nuclear is the attainment of weapons. After all, having a nuclear-armed Pakistan in the East, American troops present in neighboring Afghanistan and Iraq and based along the Persian Gulf, facing the strategic rivalry of the GCC, and being within reach of a nuclear Israel, are all apparent incentives to go nuclear. (5)

Perhaps one of the most poignant and unintended lessons of the Iraq war for the international community has been that it is better to really have nuclear weapons, lest the United States attack. In Iran, it is considered a given that "the US invaded Iraq because it was weak, but sought a diplomatic solution to North Korea's blatant proliferation because Pyongyang stood its ground." (6) North Korea, which could already have an arsenal of over a dozen nuclear weapons to complement its already sturdy ground forces in the Korean Peninsula, has reaped the benefits of deterrence, making any U.S. military endeavor highly unlikely. For Iran, the lessons of Iraq and North Korea--its supposed partners in the "axis of evil"--have not...

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