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What to do in this age of uncertainty.

Publication: Automotive Design & Production
Publication Date: 01-MAR-09 		Format: Online
Delivery: Immediate Online Access

Article Excerpt
It is beginning to look a lot like 1982. Automotive production levels in North America in 2009 are likely to drop to just over 10-million units (see Fig. 1). The level of decline is almost identical to the peak to trough decline of 42% experienced between 1978 and 1982. The biggest challenge facing OEMs and suppliers this year will be the significant variation in quarterly production. The first quarter of 2009, for example, should come in at an unbelievably low 7.5 million units. Little wonder that the industry is struggling to survive at those levels. It should "recover" to approximately 10 million units in the second quarter and could be as high as an 11.5- to 12-million unit run rate by the 4th quarter of 2009. While still phenomenally low in comparison to the last 10 years, anything above 12-million units is a level of survivability for...

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